If someone thought Sharon's victory in the Likud Center will
bring peace and quiet to the political scene in the near
future, he is in for a big surprise. When the Knesset returns
from the summer recess after the chagim Sharon will
face a long list of tasks and problems to tackle, both old
and new. Victors have problems, too.
His first task will be to try to unify the Likud and make it
vote like a single party with 40 MKs rather than two separate
parties. Over half of the Likud MKs, including the party and
coalition chairmen, supported Netanyahu in the Likud Center
vote and it will not be easy to bring them back in line with
Sharon.
The rebel camp was founded primarily on ideological grounds,
but not exclusively. Their ideology has not changed. They are
still angry over the Disengagement and are not about to
transform into faithful Sharon followers. On the other hand
the rebels, too, know they the game has now shifted from
ideological to political, as the Likud Center recently made
clear.
Therefore at least some of the Likud Rebels have probably
come to realize to get elected to the next Knesset ideology
may be important in the Likud Center, but things like job
handouts and other benefits are more important.
Sharon will invariably adopt a divide-and-conquer strategy to
overcome the Rebels, reaching out to some and leaving others
to wallow in their own mud. Gilad Arden, for instance, was
the first to call on his fellow rebels to fall in line after
the results of the vote were announced and now there are
already rumors Sharon will offer him a post as deputy
minister in exchange for assistance in straightening out the
rebel camp.
There are also calls for Sharon to summon the leading rebel,
Uzi Landau, to return to the government and take an important
portfolio, e.g. commerce and industry, which will be
available as soon as Olmert receives his permanent
appointment as Finance Minister. This would serve as a
gesture to the rebels and would isolate Netanyahu, leaving
him alone with Ayub Kara, Michael Gorolovsky, Naomi Blumental
and perhaps some other anonymous MK. Whether Landau would
accept such an offer remains uncertain and if so he would be
sure to issue policy stipulations and Sharon, as everybody
knows, does not like when people make stipulations and
demands.
The Ministerial Appointment Obstacle
Without putting order in the Likud Party, Sharon will be
unable to function during the winter session, just as he
found it hard to function last year after the Likud Party
split into two. At the beginning of the winter session Sharon
wants to gain Knesset approval for two MKs who stuck by him
all along to become ministers, Roni Bar-On and Ze'ev Boim.
Sharon also needs the Knesset to approve the appointment of
Ehud Olmert as finance minister since his temporary
appointment as substitute minister will soon expire. Olmert
is despised in the Likud for personal reasons. With so many
opponents, Likud MKs could very conceivably approve the
appointment of Bar-On and Boim, but not Olmert. In such a
case Sharon would try to enlist Shinui's support since Tomi
Lapid is known to have a close friendship with Olmert.
The portfolio designated for Bar-On is Commerce and Industry
and the portfolio designated for Boim is Immigrant
Absorption. But if he encounters many difficulties with
Olmert's appointment while the other two ministers are
approved more easily, Sharon might give the Finance Ministry
to Meir Shetreet and then make Bar-On minister of
transportation.
The Budget Hurdle
When the winter session begins Sharon will also have to
address passing the 2006 budget in a first reading, which
will be no easy matter since other coalition figures from
Labor and the chareidi parties who also come into the game at
this point.
Sharon does not like to be manipulated or forced to
capitulate, but he is willing to pay up when necessary, as
manifested when he gave Shinui NIS 700 million last year.
Now that the Disengagement is over the Labor Party has no
business staying in the government. If they really want to
vie against the Likud in the next elections they must resign
from the government as soon as possible to retain their
constituents' votes. The only issue that could justify the
party's continued stay in the government is the budget. If
Labor manages to change budgeting priorities and to direct
large amounts of funding to development towns and confronting
poverty then the party will be able to explain to the public
why they remained in the Sharon government.
