In an apparent bid to win a mandate for his policies, Acting
Prime Minister and head of Kadima Ehud Olmert detailed his
plans for a unilaterally-imposed, permanent arrangement with
the Palestinians. It is based on the policies followed by
Ariel Sharon, Olmert's predecessor, but goes well beyond
anything that Sharon ever declared in public that he was
planning to do.
Olmert said that he intends to move the security fence in
several places, evacuate all the settlers who live outside
that fence and make it the border with the Palestinians.
Presumably the Palestinians would not be allowed to have a
state as long as Hamas is in control, but Olmert did not say
anything about the political arrangements that he envisions
for the Palestinians.
Olmert called his plan a "convergence" plan, meaning that all
settlers will "converge" on several major blocs, and leave
the rest of the Territories, with the exception of a corridor
along the Jordan River. He said that be believes that it is
in Israel's best interest to follow this plan, that will
reduce contact between Israelis and Palestinians, and will
preserve a Jewish majority in Israel.
The Israeli Left and parts of the Right (or the former Right)
have cited the demographic threat from the Palestinians as a
major policy consideration. Although the numbers of Israelis
and their historical growth rates are fairly reliable, the
Palestinian numbers are much less believable. Some
researchers have concluded that Palestinian population
figures are overstated by at least 25 percent, due to double
counting and reliance on overly optimistic estimates and
projections.
As long as there is no agreement with the Palestinians,
Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert intends to keep the West
Bank under IDF control even after all the settlements beyond
the security fence are evacuated, Internal Security Minister
Gideon Ezra said. However Olmert himself declined to comment
on this idea. The idea was first raised in public by Kadima
candidate Avi Dichter: that there would be a civilian
evacuation to reduce friction, but that the IDF would remain
in control to enhance security.
Ezra endorsed Dichter's idea and said that it was part of
Olmert's thinking and Kadima's plans for after the March 28
election. It is the model that was followed in the small
withdrawal from two West Bank settlements last summer, in
contrast to the withdrawal from Gaza where full control was
handed over to the Palestinians.
Asked about Olmert's hesitation to speak about separating
civilian and military disengagement, Ezra said he had not
been told not to talk about the idea. Kadima's leaders and
strategists decided that Kadima officials would speak freely
in the press about the ideas Dichter raised but would not
specify which settlements would remain.
Other top Kadima officials said there was no consensus in the
party about the idea. Sources in the Defense Ministry said
that Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz was interested in pulling
settlers and soldiers out of the West Bank simultaneously.
Kadima candidate Shimon Peres continues to have faith in
negotiations with PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. Another Kadima
minister said he was confused at the rapid shift between
different diplomatic plans.
Other Kadima officials said that the idea was not popular
with the general public. A recent poll found that 37 percent
support the Kadima plan, 49 percent oppose and 14 percent
gave other answers.
Likud chairman Binyamin Netanyahu responded that Olmert was
misleading the public by assuming that he would form the
government. He said that in the weekend interviews Olmert
"removed his Purim mask."
"The president will ask the party that gets the most
recommendations to form the government, not the party with
the most seats," Netanyahu said.
Olmert approached the US with his plan before he made it
public, an aide said. Spokesman Asaf Shariv said an Olmert
aide presented the plan to a US official before Olmert
disclosed it in interviews last week. "They neither approved
nor objected to it," Shariv said.
