Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's unilateral
disengagement proposals, including plans to vacate
settlements in the Gaza Strip, were well received in
Washington. However Washington does not want a thickening of
West Bank settlements in response.
The Americans seem to realize there is a vacuum in the area
on the Palestinian side and there is no peace partner. But
one observer said the feeling in Washington is that the road
map is still the right framework, even if it can't be used at
the present time.
The United States is assuming that Prime Minister Ariel
Sharon's withdrawal plan will be complementary to the U.S.-
backed road map for a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict. The administration is not prepared to give up on
the road map and to replace it with Sharon's unilateral
plan.
The prime minister wants to beef up West Bank settlements in
return for evacuating Gaza settlements. Jerusalem sources are
hoping the U.S. will agree to the expansion of settlement
blocs due to be annexed to Israel under a final status deal
with the Palestinians -- settlements such as Ariel, Gush
Etzion and Ma'aleh Adumim. Sharon is considering including
the annexation of the blocs in his disengagement plan in
return for a considerable withdrawal from Gaza.
Sources in Sharon's bureau said that the Gaza evacuation may
involve dismantling fewer settlements than the 17 Sharon
mentioned last week. One source said Sharon may suggest
initially evacuating isolated settlements and leave the
evacuation of Gush Katif for a later phase, depending on what
Israel receives in return from the U.S.
Sources say national security adviser Giora Eiland will
suggest to Sharon four options for evacuating Gaza and West
Bank settlements. The broadest option includes evacuating
most Gaza settlements and some West Bank settlements. Israel
is not considering withdrawing from the Jordan Valley under
any circumstances under the disengagement plan, despite
continued disagreement over its strategic importance
following the war in Iraq.
Dov Weisglass is due to meet next Sunday with his Palestinian
counterpart, Hassan Abu-Libdeh and Palestinian Minister Saeb
Erekat for preparatory talks ahead of an expected meeting
between Sharon and Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei
(Abu Ala). It is not clear if such talks will take place.
Israel is only prepared to transfer towns to the Palestinians
if the Palestinians provide a coherent security plan.
The defensive fence being built by Israel is another aspect
of its unilateral actions. The subject of a case before the
Israeli High Court, it is then due to be discussed before the
International Court of Justice (ICJ) at The Hague.
If Israel loses the court case dealing with the fence at the
ICJ, the fence issue will go back to the UN General Assembly,
which will then likely send it to the Security Council
seeking sanctions against Israel. There Israel could probably
get six votes or abstentions that are needed to block the
resolution on the 15-nation Security Council even without a
veto. This would be preferable to a US veto.
PM's Operation disrupts Timetable
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon successfully underwent a
procedure Monday night to remove kidney stones, forcing him
to cancel meetings. Sharon, 76, complained of not feeling
well. He spent Monday resting at his Negev ranch, and had a
laser treatment to destroy the stones at Sheba Hospital.
Among the appointments Sharon canceled were separate meetings
with Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, Education Minister
Limor Livnat, and National Security Council head Giora
Eiland. Each of those meetings was to deal with the
unilateral disengagement plan.
As a result of the procedure, US National Security Council
(NSC) deputy head Steve Hadley and the head of the Middle
East desk at the NSC, Elliott Abrams, are not expected to
arrive this week for meetings on the unilateral plan. They
are now expected next week.
Sharon's bureau chief Dov Weisglass and NSC head Eiland will
then travel to Washington for further talks ahead of Sharon's
meeting with President George W. Bush. Under the planned
timetable, the main points of the plan will be agreed upon
before the meeting of the two leaders, who will then iron out
any necessary details.
The Prime Minister's Office also denied that a meeting with
Palestinian Authority Ahmed Qurei is scheduled for around
February 20. PA Foreign Minister Nabil Shaath said this
during a press conference Monday.
Netanyahu has not yet expressed any opinion about the
unilateral withdrawal plan, but he had promised to express
his opinion after a meeting with Sharon that was cancelled
due to the prime minister's illness. Both Netanyahu and
Livnat had declined to respond to the plan until meeting with
Sharon.
Hawks in the Likud expressed frustration that now Netanyahu
would "get away with continuing his silence." The hawks had
hoped that Netanyahu would express opposition to withdrawing
unilaterally from settlements and lead the opposition to the
plan. No new date has been set for the meetings with
Netanyahu and Livnat.
