Just moments before a recent Knesset meeting was scheduled to
begin MK Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu) withdrew the
bill he had submitted to return to direct prime ministerial
elections. Lieberman realized he had no chance of passing the
law and opted to hold off until he can muster majority
support.
In all probability Lieberman really would like to see a
return to the old election system. He believes in placing
great power in the hands of the prime minister, perhaps in
part so he can one day benefit from it as well.
But to the rest of the political establishment this remains a
purely political issue. Ehud Olmert is about as interested in
the system of government in Israel as in the plant species on
the islands of Peru. All he cares about is his political
survival, and in order to survive he knows he must expand the
government and the coalition.
It appears unlikely the Knesset would disband and new
elections held within the next two years. Forty of the 120
MKs are newcomers and they are not about to willingly forego
their seats before they've even had a chance to get a real
taste of power and privilege.
Nor are the more seasoned MKs eager to lay their heads before
the voters, for many of them know they would face a real risk
of not returning to the Knesset.
According to the law, Olmert can be replaced without new
elections. The Knesset can oust him by securing a majority of
61 MKs against him. But such a move also appears highly
unlikely under the current assembly of Knesset members and
the interests of the various parties. So why is Olmert so
worried about his coalition's instability?
He is not concerned over safeguarding his political life, but
rather the quality of his political life.
The Prime Minister is tired of conducting negotiations with 6-
7 MKs before every vote. He has grown weary of running from
one MK to the next, including some youngsters still drunk
with power and unfamiliar with the rules of the game. Not
knowing where to draw the line in parliamentary maneuvering
they are liable to cut off the branch they are sitting on.
Olmert is looking for some peace and quiet. He can't stand
Coalition Chairman Avigdor Yitzchaki's complaints over his
inability to secure a majority for just about any vote. He
wants to expand the coalition, not to keep the government
from dissolving but to reduce his overtime hours.
As it stands the coalition has the power to veto just about
anything. Shas was supposed to offset Labor, but at present
using Shas as a counterbalance is like trying to tip the
scales with a feather. Olmert knows that Shas, reluctant to
leave the coalition, won't initiate a real coalition crisis
over any issue, not even funding cuts for Maayan HaTorah
schools.
As a result every Labor vote has become critical. Add into
the equation the lack of stability in Kadima and the fact
that Olmert has left the party filled with embittered MKs not
willing to go out of their way for him by running to every
vote and you have a rickety coalition.
Olmert had only three options available to him: Yisrael
Beiteinu, United Torah Judaism and Meretz, which was always a
real long shot now that the Convergence Plan has met its
demise.
Since Yisrael Beiteinu comes with a cheaper price tag than
UTJ (which is seeking a reversal of the Children's Allowances
cuts), offers nearly twice as many MKs, could balance the
Labor Party's influence in the coalition and is a cohesive
unit under a single individual Olmert preferred to pursue
this option.
And that is what he did.
