Kadima began dividing the spoils even before the elections.
Mofaz is thoroughly convinced he will be appointed Defense
Minister in the next term as well, and former GSS head Avi
Dichter will have to content himself with the internal
security portfolio or an economic or social portfolio.
The Defense Ministry could also go to Dan Meridor. Olmert and
Meridor go way back and a few weeks ago this possibility was
raised in a conversation between the two.
Avraham Hirchson, formerly chairman of the Finance Committee
and today Transportation Minister, has his sights set on the
Finance Ministry. Olmert would also very much like it to go
to Hirchson, his closest ally, but he also knows he may wind
up having to give it to his coalition partner — Amir
Peretz, for example, or perhaps even Avigdor Lieberman.
Nor is Meir Shetreet, who served six months as Finance
Minister and 18 months as a Minister Without Portfolio in the
Finance Ministry, out of the running.
Tzippi Livni is convinced that no matter how Kadima puts
together a coalition, the Foreign Affairs Ministry will
remain in her hands because Olmert promised it to her.
Peres will receive the kind of portfolio he had under Sharon
(Vice Prime Minister, Negev and Galilee Development and some
sort of responsibility for an area of Palestinian relations)
and all those who are currently serving as ministers (except
for Tzachi Hanegbi), with the addition of Reichman (maybe)
and Ramon, would also serve as ministers in the Kadima
government.
Reichman is sure he will receive the education portfolio as
Olmert's staff recently told him, but everybody knows that
after the elections if Olmert has to sacrifice Reichman on
the coalition altar due to a veto of the former Shinui
Council Chairman's candidacy by the chareidi parties, Olmert
would do so without batting an eyelid.
Reichman does not have people working for him and lacks
political power. Before the elections he had some power
because Kadima wanted to draw former Shinui voters, but now
his political weight is negligible and a seasoned politician
like Olmert is well aware of the situation.
The Labor Party also longs to secure the Education portfolio
for its candidate, Yuli Tamir, who is closely associated with
Amir Peretz. Labor recently announced that the Education
Ministry would be an ultimatum for participation in any
coalition, making Reichman's chances of getting the post very
slim.
Roni Bar-On wants the Justice Ministry portfolio in order to
come full circle by having the man who didn't want him as
Attorney General (Bar-On—Chevron) accept him for the
post of Justice Minister. But relations between him and
Olmert have been correct at best, therefore it seems doubtful
that his hopes will be realized. Today he is serving as
Infrastructure Minister and if he winds up keeping the post
it should be seen as a substantial achievement.
The Justice Ministry could also go to a coalition partner,
although the chances are not very great, primarily due to
recent revelations against Olmert. If the portfolio stays in
Kadima certainly Chaim Ramon would not refuse the job if were
offered.
Olmert's task of assembling a coalition will not be easy. He
cannot afford to hurt people along the way if he wants to
keep the predictions that Kadima is a one-term party destined
to disband, from coming true, for creating a group of
disgruntled MKs would the best way to foment schisms during
the course of the term.
