Preparations to execute the disengagement plan are in full
swing now that the government has passed the Settlement
Evacuation Law and the Prime Minister and Defense Minister
signed evacuation orders. The right has come to realize that
the process is now irreversible and, surprisingly, even some
rabbis identified with the settlers are calling on them to go
peacefully.
But Sharon still has another hurdle to surmount: passing the
2005 budget in its second and third readings to be held in
another two or three weeks. He is expected to succeed, but
only at the last moment and only following high political
tensions.
Sharon's main obstacle in securing a majority to pass the
budget is the group of 14 Likud Rebels who said they would
vote against the budget in order to topple the government and
halt the disengagement plan. But Sharon, whose shrewdness
should never be underestimated, has several options available
to him.
Four Options
Sharon's first option is to persuade the Rebels, or at least
a majority of them, to support the budget. As the vote draws
near he is likely to threaten to hold new elections in the
Likud Center if the budget does not pass. This would frighten
many of the Likud Rebels serving their first term in the
Knesset.
The Prime Minister's second option is to convince Shas to
back the budget. Recently Shas announced that it would vote
against the budget but of course this is merely maneuvering
— winning their vote is merely a question of money. The
problem is that Shas is driving a hard bargain and Sharon and
Netanyahu might be unable to deliver the goods.
The third option is having Shinui's 14 MKs abstain. Shinui is
frustrated. They now regret resigning from the coalition and
exiling themselves to the opposition wasteland over a measly
NIS 290 million in funding for the chareidim. Having realized
their mistake they have been sending signals to Sharon that
they would be willing to return to the coalition and even to
sit together with Degel HaTorah-Agudas Yisroel, as long as
they receive some key ministries.
The problem with this option is that Sharon would have to
reshuffle the government, even taking away portfolios
currently held by the Likud and Labor—the last thing
Sharon needs at the moment.
Thus Sharon has refused Shinui's demands, using a scare
tactic to induce the party to support the budget without
receiving additional funding in exchange: should the budget
get defeated the responsibility for harming or calling off
the disengagement plan would fall on their shoulders. Based
on this understanding, Sharon received a positive response
from Tommy Lapid, who went to Sycamore Ranch (Sharon's home)
for a working meeting with the Prime Minister.
There was just one hitch. Shinui would look ridiculous
backing the budget if the fateful NIS 290 million that
brought the party to resign remained in. Lapid rejected
Sharon's threat, saying that the responsibility would fall on
the Prime Minister for having refused to set up a secular
unity government, which would have had a clear majority to
pass the budget, the disengagement plan, etc.
Sharon is letting time take its course, convinced that when
the moment of truth arrives Shinui will not permit itself to
let the budget fall, for the disengagement plan would go down
with it and the party's voters would punish them severely at
the polls.
Sharon's fourth option is to gain the support of the Arab
MKs, in part or in full, and Yachad, the radical Left.
Gaining the six Yachad votes should not be too difficult. The
far-left party has already announced that if the budget
hinges on its votes, no matter how hard it may be for them to
back a budget with such meager social spending they will
still vote in favor, for to them disengagement is of utmost
importance.
Winning the support of the Arab MKs is a bigger problem.
Recently Sharon was particularly gracious at a meeting with
two of them, El-Sana and Dehamshe, hinting at his
expectations from them. Even before the meeting, El-Sana made
it clear that if Sharon meets his price, voting in favor of
the budget is a distinct possibility.
Sharon has 49 certain votes in favor of the budget: 25 from
the Likud, 19 from Labor, 2 from Degel HaTorah and 3 from
Agudas Yisroel. With the addition of Nudelman and Paritzky,
with him he can surely reach an understanding without undue
difficulty, Sharon has 51 votes. That leaves just 10 more
votes, and even fewer if some MKs abstain.
Officials at the Prime Minister's Office are not worried.
They know there is a good deal of tension and a war of nerves
to survive but eventually the goal will be attained, for
there are too many MKs who would not dare harm the
disengagement plan, and/or who do not want new elections any
sooner than necessary. Therefore of the total of 28 potential
votes (and abstentions) among MKs from Shinui, Yachad and the
Arab parties, they are confident of their ability to get the
majority needed to pass the budget.
