Ariel Sharon plans to set up a new government within the next
two weeks. "A state cannot be run without a government," he
said, and rightfully so. The State and the government have
already been hobbling along for too long with a paralyzed
minority government. The sooner this comes to an end the
better.
According to the first phase of the plan, to assemble a new
coalition the Labor Party and United Torah Jewry will be
brought in along with MKs Tal and Nudelman and perhaps
Paritzky ("the three loners," as they are dubbed in the
Knesset). Such a government would number 66-69 MKs—40
from the Likud, 21 from Labor, 5 from UTJ and the loners. In
the second phase, after this government stabilizes, Shas'
turn will come. Sharon will save the party two portfolios,
one high-level portfolio and one lesser portfolio. If and
when Shas joins the government could total 80 MKs.
The plan to bring in Shas only later stems from its
opposition to the disengagement plan and Sharon's difficult
experiences with the party. UTJ's vote against the
disengagement plan was primarily for tactical reasons, while
Shas's no-vote was ideological and electoral.
At a recent Likud meeting Sharon made clear that any party
that did not support the disengagement plan would not join
the government. Shimon Peres also announced he had no
intentions of joining a government with parties opposed to
the disengagement plan (read: Shas).
Under such circumstances Shas' demands would be reduced to a
minimum, especially in the area of socioeconomics. From Shas'
standpoint the issue of disengagement would be solved if
Sharon met with Abu Mazzen to tell him he is going from a
unilateral to a bilateral track. But such a meeting would not
take place before the PA elections in another four weeks and
Sharon cannot wait that long to set up a stable government,
which he must do as soon as possible.
Eventually Labor Will Arrive
Neither was the work of bringing in the Labor Party a simple
matter, although on paper it looked easy. Labor is highly
complex internally. It has more leaders than followers and
the addition of Ehud Barak into the race for party leadership
merely adds fuel to the fire.
Not everyone in the Labor Party wants to join a unity
government. Peres can expect a stiff battle over a decision
to join the government. First he will have to gain the
approval of party entities.
Ehud Barak and his faction are staunchly opposed to joining
the government. They claim the party can support the
government from outside the coalition to implement the
disengagement plan and to reach an agreement with Sharon to
hold elections approximately one year from now after the
disengagement is complete.
Matan Vilnai is also vying for the post of party chairman.
Having recently won popularity in surveys of Labor voters he
is unexcited over the prospects of a unity government. Unlike
Barak he does agree Labor should join the government, but for
just a single reason: to pass the disengagement plan. Thus
the day after the disengagement plan has been implemented
Labor must leave the government and call for new
elections.
But Vilnai and Barak share some common ground: both are
concerned joining a unity government would delay the plan to
hold party elections and both are eager to contend for the
title of party chairman.
After the battle over joining the government the time will
come for another battle with Labor over ministerial
appointments. More than 10 Labor MKs, over half the party,
see themselves as worthy candidates for ministerial
posts— Shimon Peres, Binyamin Ben Eliezer, Matan
Vilnai, Ephraim Sneh, Chaim Ramon, Beigah Shochat, Shalom
Simchon, Dalia Itzik, Amram Mitzna, Ophir Pines, Yitzchok
Herzog and Ehud Barak (who is not an MK).
According to the agreement between Sharon and Peres, Labor
will receive 6-7 portfolios. Four are guaranteed places:
Peres, Ben Eliezer, Vilnai and Itzik. Simchon's place also
looks quite secure as the representative of settlement. From
Peres' perspective the two other ministers are Mitzna and
Ramon and in any case Ehud Barak will not make the list.
But if the list of ministers is determined by secret ballot
at party headquarters Ramon will have no chance and Mitzna
will have to fight for his position. On the other hand Barak,
Sneh and perhaps even Pines will have far greater chances.
Shochat and Herzog will have to satisfy themselves with the
knowledge they were even candidates for ministerial posts.
