Winners, Losers and Plans for the Future
Several winners emerged two weeks ago, and the biggest of them
all, of course, were Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Likud
Chairman Ariel Sharon. In fact, both of them beat the same man,
Binyamin Netanyahu. Many losers were also posted, with
Netanyahu leading the list and Eli Yishai a close second. Among
the other losers were Tommy Lapid, who had already begun to
prepare victory celebrations with surveys forecasting 12
mandates, Silvan Shalom, Limor Livnat, Meir Shetreet, and
others.
But today's winners might not emerge victorious when all is
said and done. Likewise the losers will invariably have more to
say and will make their voices heard loud and clear. Two weeks
ago Silvan Shalom, Limor Livnat and Meir Shetreet did not
believe that within two days such a situation would evolve.
They were sure Netanyahu would vie and assume the Likud
leadership without any effort and therefore they chose not to
contend, since the outcome of the game was known in advance.
But with Netanyahu out of the running leaving Sharon the
contender, that is a whole different story. But the train has
already pulled out of the station, and they have been left
behind.
So it goes in politics. Either you pluck up your courage, or
you take a chance or you're out of the game until the next time
around, unless Netanyahu comes back for more.
But above all, the campaign trail has begun. Sharon versus
Barak. Two renowned military men, a chief of staff against a
general, going head to head. Both of them consider themselves
expert strategists and top-notch tacticians, and both camps
have already rallied their forces to go full steam ahead for
the office of prime minister.
Meanwhile public rumor, for some reason, has it that these
elections are altogether superfluous. Everything has already
been settled between the two and after the elections a unity
government will be set up anyway, with the winner putting his
opponent in the leading runner-up position.
The Sin of Pride
Netanyahu's close associates promised us he'd be back in a new
and improved model, but somehow it seems he's been left out of
the election campaign due to a sin we associate with the old
Netanyahu--the sin of pride and overconfidence that has been
known to ensnare him. His declaration that he will not run
unless the Knesset is dispersed was essentially an attempt to
bend the political establishment to his will and to compel it
to go along with what suited him best.
Netanyahu should have understood that this wouldn't work. A
politician who has been out of the ring for a year and a half--
of which at least six months were spent abroad, making him
almost a tourist here--cannot come and tell 120 Knesset members
who have labored and sweated and spent large sums of money to
be chosen among the 120 representatives of the populace, to go
back home. Disperse yourselves because that's what I want, and
do my bidding, or else I'm out of the game. With all due
respect, that is no way to talk, and that's not the way things
are done.
Even Netanyahu's close associates, those who have been with him
over the long haul, those who did everything to have an
election called in order to bring him back into the political
ring, have been left high and dry, with the bitter taste of
frustration and disappointment. But not Netanyahu.
Meanwhile, people are crowding around Sharon and lining up to
see him. Sharon has his own people, and those who want to hop
on the bandwagon will have to roll up their sleeves and work
their way on. Netanyahu does not yet seem to have come to
understand that the world of politics demands flexibility; that
a politician has to adjust to every set of circumstances.
Take, for example, his refusal to serve as foreign minister
under Sharon, if elected. Isn't the post of foreign minister
important and dignified enough for him? Shamir served as
foreign minister after he was prime minister, and Peres did
likewise. Rabin served as Defense Minister after he was prime
minister. Netanyahu conveys a message, "I was born for the
office of prime minister alone."
This style is not readily accepted in the political
establishment, and this is a type of arrogance that is
inappropriate for someone who wants to make a new image for
himself.
In any case, Netanyahu is in a real bind. Last Tuesday he
announced that he would back Sharon. He said his support is
unreserved, and emphasized that he would do whatever asked of
him by Sharon's campaign staff, but he is obviously stuck in a
tight spot: if he doesn't help Sharon and Sharon loses as a
result, he will be accused of thwarting the Likud's bid to
return to power. But if he does help Sharon and Sharon wins,
Netanyahu's chances of making a comeback will fade further.
With all due respect to Netanyahu, if Sharon succeeds as prime
minister, there is no reason why he wouldn't lead the Likud in
the next elections as well. If Sharon loses, it will be seen as
a failure on the part of the Likud, and the public will want to
replace the entire government, from Likud to Labor, without
taking into account that the Likud will have replaced its
leader with Netanyahu standing in for Sharon.
Fearing Disaster
Eli Yishai did not have much to smile about last weekend,
either. Yes, he did manage to retain his 17 mandates. Yes, he
did demonstrate once again that nothing happens in the current
Knesset without Shas, and that Shas alone can dictate the
agenda. Yes, he proved that Shas is the only independent party
that can be manipulated by no one whatsoever, not even the
former prime minister who all the surveys prophesied would be
the next prime minister, as well.
But in the final analysis, Yishai was a defeated man this week,
almost worthy of pity. A man who knows he holds the title of
party chairman, but who has no party to chair. Yishai decided
to lead the move to oppose the dispersal of the Knesset for a
single reason--and don't let anyone else tell you otherwise:
the fear of a landslide election and the collapse of the party.
Despite the fact that the most optimistic surveys predicted
Shas would receive 10-11 mandates, with the least optimistic
predicting 7-8, Eli Yishai continued to entertain notions that
the surveys are wrong just as they were in the last elections,
and that he would be able to handle new elections, even for the
Knesset, without much damage to Shas, or slight damage at the
very worst--the loss of a mandate or two. This was also the
message conveyed to Netanyahu's staff, that there was a good
chance they would agree to the Knesset dispersal option, in
spite of everything.
But last week on Sunday evening, all that changed. A special
messenger sent by Arye Deri arrived at Rabbi Ovadia Yosef's
home--his brother, Attorney Shlomo Deri. Accounts of what
happened there differ. Some say he stated outright that Arye
Deri would not run a Knesset list and would not support any
Knesset list vying against Shas, and added that he does not
want to get involved in politics and does not want his name to
be used. According to the other version, Deri asked to be
allowed to determine 80 percent of the Shas Knesset list, and
if not prefers to be left out of politics as per the first
version. Of course 80 percent is out of the question, but
without Deri -- his name and his trial and prison story --
there would be no point in the election bid because a severe
defeat would be guaranteed. In short, Shas has to oppose the
dispersal of the Knesset at all costs. The lots have already
been cast.
Bringing Back the Dropouts
Close to twenty years ago, Ariel Sharon was forced to resign as
Defense Minister due to the conclusions drawn by the Kahan
Committee in the matter of the Sabra and Shatilla incidents.
One of his close associates, reporter Uri Dan, said then that
whoever didn't want Sharon as Defense Minister would get him as
prime minister. During the nearly 20 years since then, the
prophesy has not come true and Sharon did not have an
opportunity to realize his big dream. But now opportunity is
knocking, and he intends to charge forward full-force as only
he knows how.
In contrast to the surveys which perhaps paint the picture a
bit rosier than it would otherwise appear, from Sharon's
perspective the battle will not be easy by any means. He will
have to make a real effort in order to defeat Barak, and even
so, there is no guarantee that his efforts will bear fruit.
Sharon will have to persuade the center voters to cast their
ballots for him, and this will prove very challenging. He will
have to persuade the chareidi public to support him after he
voted against the bill to arrange for deferred induction of
yeshiva students on its first reading, and that will be quite a
task. He will have to assure Arab citizens that they have
nothing to fear from him and that therefore they should not
flock en masse to support Barak and this, as well, will be
nearly impossible. In short, the numerous challenges Sharon
faces are not simple by any means, but these difficult tasks
before him are certainly not impossible, and with some good
work in the right direction, he could reach the finish line
first.
The first step Sharon must take is to bring back all of the
Likud dropouts: Dan Meridor, Roni Milo, David Levy, Maxim Levy,
and even Benny Begin. Meridor, Milo and Levy are his ticket to
the Israeli center. If Meridor comes home along with Milo and
they both back Sharon, not just with words but with actions and
some tough field work as well, Sharon could begin to crack a
smile.
Sharon needs to convince people that his warmonger image is
mistaken and that he is no less a man of peace, and there is
nobody better than Meridor and Levy to accomplish this. Half
leftists, Ashkenazi, anti-religious, hailing from the North Tel
Aviv bourgeoisie, attorneys--perfect for the job. Both Meridor
and Milo are from the center, and according to the law they can
resign and set up a separate faction which would then join the
Likud. This would allow Sharon to grant them ministerial posts
after the elections, if he wins. The Levy brothers cannot set
up a separate faction, but this won't prevent them from
supporting Sharon from within the One Israel faction. After the
elections a way can be found to pay them back without legal
entanglements, but first Sharon has to win.
