Once again it became clear last week as the Israel Defense
Forces (IDF) and the South Lebanon Army (SLA) ran for their
lives that Israel is not able to "take its lot into its own
hands," as the Zionists always proudly proclaimed they would.
Though Prime Minister Ehud Barak huffed that everything that
happened was "foreseen" it was clear that they had not
planned to pull troops out of Lebanon on five minutes'
notice, leaving personal effects and equipment behind for the
Lebanese guerrillas.
Most evident was the incredible detachment of Ehud Barak who
cannot see anything but his own plans. Though Barak has
declared all along that the IDF would leave Lebanon a year
after his election, with or without an agreement, he was so
convinced of his ability to reach an agreement with Syria
that no serious preparations for leaving were made until that
possibility became moot after the Clinton-Assad summit in
Geneva in March.
No beginning was made in protection of the settlements along
the new border, no plans and preparations were made for the
thousands of soldiers of the SLA, no changes were made in the
strategic thinking of the army to seriously confront the new
situation. These were all steps that would have to be taken
whether or not there was an agreement with Syria, and they
could have been started in time enough to produce serious
results before the rapid events of last week.
Just as Barak made his plans for a Syrian settlement without
really taking Syria into account, the IDF made its plans for
withdrawing from south Lebanon without seriously thinking how
the Lebanese and the Hizbullah fighters would behave, and how
the SLA troops would react. They thought only of their
abilities to withstand military attacks, but never considered
that the guerrilla fighters would mingle with returning
villagers and enter the area without brandishing their
weapons.
Perhaps it was easier for a Labor government to withdraw from
Lebanon because the Likud originally established the zone,
but it is clear that there is no turning back the clock and
the future of Israel's northern border is clouded with
uncertainty. It is unlikely to stay quiet for long and,
despite Israel's tough talk about responding in force from
behind the international border, it is far from believable
that they will be able to do so. A few months from now, when
the situation is no longer fresh and Israel's position behind
the northern border is perceived as its natural place, it
will no longer be so easy for it to attack across the border
without a serious provocation.
Of more concern is the effect that the Hizbullah victory will
have on our other neighbors. Can any of them now afford to
settle for less than the guerrillas won? Can Arafat
compromise for peace if Arab fighters in Lebanon have
achieved complete victory? Can Syria, a proud, sovereign
state, accept anything less than its ragged Hizbullah proxies
in Lebanon did? It looks very much like the "window of
opportunity" that Barak spoke of when he was elected has
closed.
Our main task now is to countdown to Shavuos, and to remember
that Hashem figures all the details and moves things as He
wills. It is a humbling thought that it would be nice to see
among our leaders.
