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28 Adar 5775 - March 19, 2015 | Mordecai Plaut, director Published Weekly
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NEWS
2015 Election Results

by Mordecai Plaut

United Torah Judaism (UTJ) increased its voters since the last election just two years ago by about 15,000. Even though their proportion of the vote is almost exactly what it was then, they apparently will not hold on to their 7th Knesset seat. In the complicated way that Israel allocates its final seats, it is hard to be sure until the final votes are counted what the exact final configuration will be but it appears that they will have only 6 Knesset seats.

In 2013 UTJ received 195,892 votes and this time they received 211,826. Shas fell from 331,868 votes in 2013 to 241,200 votes this time which will give them only 7 Knesset seats. Yachad, the breakaway-Shas party led by former Shas leader Eli Yishai got 125,106 votes which is now below the minimum number of votes to enter the Knesset. The so-called Jerusalem faction of the Degel HaTorah party, which called for its supporters not to vote, did not seem to have any discernible effect.

Overall, 72.36 percent of the voters went to the polls, significantly more proportionally than those who voted in the last election just two years ago. A large portion of the increase came in Arab voters who had only one party to choose from this time instead of the previous three.

The overall results were: Likud - 30 (18) Knesset seats; The Zionist Camp (Labor Party) - 24 (15+6); the United (Arab) parties - 13 (4+3+1); Yesh Atid - 11 (19); Kulanu - 10; Habayit Hayehudi - 8 (12); Shas - 7 (11); United Torah Judaism - 6 (7); Yisrael Beiteinu - 6 (13); Meretz - 5 (6). This represents the results of just about all of the votes but it is not yet the final, official count. The numbers in parenthesis are the seats that the party held in the 19th Knesset. The ten parties entering the Knesset are the smallest number of parties in over 20 years. Analysts pointed out that if UTJ had gotten the same number of votes in the previous election, they would have had 8 seats.

Analyzing the results, MK Rabbi Moshe Gafni said that the three parties who had led the attacks on the chareidi community in the last Knesset had suffered big setbacks, meaning Habayit Hayehudi, Yesh Atid and Yisrael Beiteinu.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed victory in Israel's election. The polls had shown him about even with the Zionist Camp. His margin was greater than any margin of polling error. Netanyahu made a rightward shift at the last minute in which he said he will not negotiate a Palestinian state. Three exit polls on election day showed very different results, having Likud and the Zionist Camp close together. In an interview after the election, Netanyahu seemed to backtrack somewhat on his remarks about a Palestinian state.

Difficult coalition talks still lie ahead. However it is almost certain that Netanyahu will be the one to form a government.

In the 5756 (1996) elections, UTJ received a total of 98,657 votes and then jumped 28 percent to 125,741 votes in 5759 (1999). In the next elections UTJ received 135,087 votes— an increase of only 7.5 percent.

The next stage is for the President of Israel, currently Reuven Rivlin, to ask one of the party leaders to form the next government. The president decides whom to ask after consulting all the parties as to whom they recommend for the next prime minister. Based on their responses, he is supposed to call upon the party leader who seems to have the best chance to form a government, to try to do so. This is almost certain to be Netanyahu.

If given the opportunity, Mr. Netanyahu has about six weeks in which to form a government. It may not take him that long.

The final decision about a chareidi party entering a government is made by the rabbonim. The chareidi community was not happy with Mr. Netanyahu's passive acceptance of the demands of Yesh Atid against them in the previous government. The politicians are looking forward to joining to that they can reverse many large and small laws passed by the previous government. Describing the previous government, MK Rabbi Moshe Gafni said, "There is no area in our lives which they have not sought to throttle the chareidi public, from the most sacred and central value like army service down to the smallest detail. This can be compared to a man sitting in his home and someone comes along to harasses him on all sides. The invader tears down the curtains, shuts off the light, demolishes his kitchen and bars him access to basic supplies to the point that the man is forced to move out."

 

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