Government and IDF officials are following the PA election
process in suspense and realizing it could have a major
impact on the entire region. Some observers say these
elections are even more significant than the elections in
Israel. According to all of the forecasts Hamas will have a
major presence in the PA parliament after the elections.
Israel does not yet know how to approach this development.
In recent weeks real indecisiveness has stood out prominently
in Israel. Should the government help Fatah and Abu Mazen
postpone the elections until they manage to rehabilitate
their status or should it avoid getting involved? The dispute
has yet to be settled.
IDF intelligence is unsure of its assessment of the Hamas'
power within the Palestinian public and experts cannot say
whether the Hamas will take part in Palestinian leadership
after fortifying its power in the elections.
Nor does Israel know what to do if the Hamas merges with
Palestinian government institutions. In such a case should
Israel conduct negotiations, violating its policy of not
negotiating with terrorist organizations as long as they do
not recognize Israel? At this stage many questions remain
unanswered.
*
The staff at the Prime Minister's Office realizes that
preparations must be made for the day after the Palestinian
elections, and this week discussions began on the possible
ramifications of the election results if Hamas takes part.
A policy team headed by advisor Dov Weissglass will assess
the significance of the Hamas' various achievements in the
elections. The working principle in Jerusalem is that the
Hamas will not sweep the elections but will win 30 percent of
the seats in the Palestinian Parliament.
If the Hamas wins, MK Shimon Peres said this week, the
continued existence of the Road Map would be questionable.
Peres said such a development would threaten the
international aid given to the PA since no country would
provide funding to a PA under the control of an armed
terrorist organization.
US envoys Elliot Abrams and David Walsh are scheduled to
arrive in Israel on Thursday to hold talks in preparation for
the PA elections. They will meet with Weissglass and ranking
officials on both sides in order to discuss the possible
election outcomes as well as arrangements for the elections
themselves.
At this stage Israel opposes voting in East Jerusalem because
of Hamas' participation. Israel has already announced it
would allow Palestinians from East Jerusalem to vote outside
of the city limits. Political sources said the US is not
pressuring Israel to allow the vote in Jerusalem itself. The
Americans' final stance will become clearer with the envoys'
visit this week.
*
And we cannot overlook the sparring Israeli parties
respective positions on the PA elections. All of the three
leading parties rejected outright the possibility of talks
with a Palestinian government headed by the Hamas.
Sharon has already stated there will be no negotiations with
the Palestinians if Hamas heads the PA. Under such
circumstances Israel would have no partner, just like under
Arafat.
Labor Chairman Amir Peretz said political negotiations should
not be conducted with any organization that proclaims a
desire to destroy Israel.
Likud Chairman Binyamin Netanyahu said negotiations with
Hamas would be as unthinkable as the US conducting
negotiations with Bin Laden. "With the Hamas we have to wage
war, not conduct negotiations," Netanyahu said.
