Shimon Peres' defeat in last week's Labor primaries was a
major upheaval in the Israeli political scene, where things
are about to get very lively. Sharon's chances of surviving
the current term are now very slim.
Amir Peretz promised to take the Labor Party out of the
government and he fully intends to keep his word. That means
early elections, either at the end of winter or the beginning
of spring, right after Pesach.
The big upheaval in the Labor Party could trigger a general
political upheaval in its wake. Sharon had very different
plans for the next two to three months. He wanted peace and
quiet, both within the Likud Party and elsewhere, to help him
pass the national budget. The political establishment knew
despite his threats early last week before the Knesset
plenum, after his failure to appoint his strong supporters,
Baum and Bar-On, nothing much would happen until after the
state budget passed all readings.
Amir Peretz' election shook the ground not just beneath
Peres' feet and the Labor Party but beneath Ariel Sharon's
feet as well. Peres, the man who even a bulldozer could not
oust from the government, the man who provided the foundation
for the government's survival, allowing Sharon to sleep
soundly, has now lost. And this time he is stepping off the
stage for good (so it seems, but when it comes to Peres, as
long as he's still breathing—save the eulogies for
later).
Perhaps the only person who can save Peres is Sharon, if he
decides to set up a new party and bring in his aged Laborite
partner. Both of them face problems within their respective
parties: Peres has Peretz and Sharon has Netanyahu, Landau
and the Likud Rebels to contend with. A new party could solve
all of their problems.
Several Labor figures are probably dreaming of Sharon taking
Peres out from their midst. People like Chaim Ramon and
perhaps Dalia Itzik, Shalom Simchon and Orit Noked.
But even if Sharon decides to set up a new party he will
definitely think twice before recruiting all sorts of Labor
figures. He doesn't need losers on his list. He well
remembers what happened to the Center Party when various
stars fled their respective parties and gathered together
under one list: after surveys showed they would command 22
mandates they ended up winning just six and quickly dashed
into pieces.
Amir Peretz will invariably work to keep all of the top Labor
figures at his side, including Shimon Peres. (The only
exception could be Ehud Olmert, who he would be glad to
forfeit.) At the same time he will make every effort to bring
new blood into the party—well-known figures of wide
repute, such as Ami Eilon. For if he goes to the polls again
with just Pines, Herzog, Peres, Vilnai and Ben Eliezer in his
repertoire his chances of rising up beyond what Labor
achieved in the last elections will not be very good.
As far as the budget goes, the Likud Rebels who voted against
the appointment of Baum and Bar-On are likely to vote in
favor of the budget in the first reading and to present their
demands as the second and third readings roll around. They
want budget increases for welfare programs and construction
in Judea and Samaria. And as usual all of the various figures
making demands will fall into line.
The new finance minister, Ehud Olmert, is seasoned and shrewd
enough to know how to give them the feeling they came away
with some gain without giving away more than he wanted to
spend on their causes in the first place.
Following their big victory over Sharon over the ministerial
appointments they can act like victors. And victors tend to
be generous. Not wanting to cut themselves off from the Prime
Minister entirely, according to indications the Rebels,
certainly the vast majority of them, will vote in favor of
the budget.
The main problem will be dealing with the Labor Party in the
new political era. That's a whole different ballgame. Amir
Peretz is strongly opposed to the budget and will hold out
for major changes. Olmert's tricks won't go over very well on
him. He cannot be bought for cheap. Ehud Olmert has already
stated he is prepared to cooperate with the Labor Party to
obtain their support of the budget, but Peretz drives a hard
bargain which the Finance Ministry probably cannot afford.
And even if so it would be based on agreeing on a date for
early elections.
