Like it or not the 5766 elections will be recalled throughout
the generations as the elections that were decided by social
issues. Many chuckled at Labor Chairman Amir Peretz for
focusing on social and economic issues, but he was right.
Kassam missiles fell and terror attack warnings were reported
right and left, but in the end the public voted against bare
refrigerator shelves.
People were tired of scavenging for food or seeing other
citizens in disgrace. They were tired of constantly opening
new soup kitchens and setting up aid organizations for the
needy, and when the day of reckoning arrived voters got
revenge.
All of the parties that ran on social-economic platforms made
big gains while the parties that stuck to security policy
suffered heavy losses. The public had its say — even
voters who abstained — for not voting is a form of
protest. Abstaining is essentially a vote for dissatisfaction
with the political system and where it is leading the
country.
Labor's 19 mandates can be seen as a setback since Labor had
19 mandates in the previous Knesset and Amir Peretz' party,
Am Echad, had three. On the other hand, when taking into
account the loss of Peres, Ramon and Itzik the results can be
viewed as an achievement. But clearly its greatest gain was
not 19 mandates but the fact it finished not too far behind
Kadima, which pulled in 28 mandates.
The Likud and HaIchud HaLeumi-NRP ran campaign platforms
against Hamas and Kassam missiles and the voting public gave
them a big slap in the face. Meanwhile parties like Shas and
the Pensioners scored sweeping victories and Yisrael Beiteinu
won an astonishing 12 mandates after promising to help
immigrants. In addition to campaigning for Jewish values, UTJ
also focused some of its attention on social and economic
issues (Child Allowances, funding for yeshivas and Torah
institutions, etc.), which accounts, in part, for its rise to
six mandates.
Coalition Options
Kadima won big in its premiere showing and will almost
certainly be the one to assemble the next government, but the
party was hoping for much more. The election results and the
shape of the coalition to be formed are reminiscent of what
happened to Ehud Olmert in the 5759 elections.
Kadima will need several parties in order to build a
controlling coalition and this, of course, will make the
coalition unwieldy.
On paper Olmert has numerous options, but in contradiction to
what the surveys prophesied, Kadima will not be able to act
as the central ruling party that the Likud was in the
previous term.
And Olmert has a fundamental problem on his hands. Two issues
stand out on today's national agenda, issues that will not be
easy to confront with a complex coalition.
The first issue is social and economic policy. Several
parties would only be willing to enter the coalition if their
demands in this area are met, parties like Labor, Shas, the
Pensioners. With a total of 40 mandates no coalition can be
formed without at least some of them, and bringing them into
the coalition could cost Kadima billions of shekels in budget
funding.
The second issue on the agenda is the Disengagement Plan
— Part II or, as Olmert is calling it, the "Convergence
Plan." Parties like Shas, Lieberman and UTJ, which voted
against the Disengagement Plan in the Knesset, would be
reluctant to enter the coalition if they have to support this
plan.
In theory Olmert can assemble a government without these
parties, relying on Labor, the Pensioners, Meretz and outside
support from the Arab parties, but only as a last-ditch
option. Olmert does not want to build a coalition too far to
the left, certainly not one that has to rely on backing from
Arab MKs.
Thus the Prime Minister elect's first challenge will be to
link parties on both economic and security policies. In other
words, to make a square wheel.
The obvious choice is Labor, but to win its support Olmert
will have to pay a high price: lots of portfolios and coveted
ministries. Shas and UTJ, for instance, which together have
almost as many mandates as Labor, would cost him much
less.
First Olmert will have to decide whether he wants to go with
Labor and reduce the number of portfolios he is saving for
his close allies thereby possibly sowing the seeds of future
trouble, or whether he wants to overlook Labor and unite with
parties that will charge a lower price and allow him to work
in relative peace and quiet. Olmert is a seasoned politician
who will probably conduct negotiations toward both
possibilities, which should reduce the price he has to pay in
funding and portfolios. But Amir Peretz is no greenhorn
either. He will try to fight back by holding talks to form a
coalition without Kadima. These coalition negotiations are
going to focus on economics more than any past negotiations
and anyone who claims to know the outcome is not to be
believed.
