At a recent Knesset meeting during which PM Ehud Olmert and
opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu spoke, Knesset Speaker
Dalia Itzik surprised all when she called on Olmert to begin
talks on a unity government.
Generally unity governments are set up before going to war,
not afterwards. Olmert may have been taken by surprise by
Itzik's proposal, but not Netanyahu. The previous evening she
met with Netanyahu to present him her idea. He asked whether
Olmert was behind the idea and pointed out that the
proposal's timing was unusual, but indicated he would be
willing to consider it.
During his speech Netanyahu made his conditions known. His
central point was to reject unilateral withdrawal based on
the results of the unilateral withdrawals from Lebanon six
years ago and from Gaza and Northern Samaria one year ago. In
other words there was nothing to talk about unless Olmert
agreed to bury his Convergence Plan.
Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman MK Avigdor Lieberman, whose party
was also mentioned as a potential member of a unity
government, echoed similar sentiments.
Thus the prospects of setting up a unity government is
nothing but idle talk at the moment.
So why would the Knesset Chairwoman, a seasoned politician,
call for such a move if she is well aware its chances of
success are next to nothing?
Like many others, Dalia Itzik realizes that Olmert's
leadership position has greatly deteriorated. Even before the
war, the current government was not expected to last for too
long and now its end is drawing ever closer. She also
realizes that Kadima's rapid decline indicates that those who
said the party was a flash-in-the-pan success well be proved
right.
Many Kadima MKs are likely to return or switch to the Likud
following Kadima's demise. The more anonymous Kadima MKs will
vanish from the political map as fast as they came.
But Dalia Itzik has a real problem on her hands. She has
little chance of returning to Labor after resigning from the
party to join Kadima. With nowhere to go home to, at present
her only way to survive politically is to keep the current
government and the Knesset going as long as possible. Hence
her proposal. But it is really nothing more than a political
shot-in-the-dark made out of desperation.
Where is Kadima Headed?
Kadima's campaign platform centered on the Convergence Plan.
In fact it was unilateral withdrawal in the form of the
Disengagement Plan that led to the disintegration of the
Likud and the rise of Kadima with former PM Ariel Sharon at
the helm.
But the concept of unilateral withdrawal has now collapsed.
Binyamin Netanyahu said as much in the Knesset and many
others think it — including a majority of the public, a
majority of MKs and even a majority of Kadima MKs.
Three weeks ago, at the height of the fighting, Olmert said
the results of the war in Lebanon would be the basis for
advancing the Convergence Plan. At the time many chuckled at
this remark including ministers in Olmert's government (Meir
Shetreet, for example), but today the PM's words sound even
more laughable. Perhaps some entertained the notion that
Israel would emerge from battle proud and victorious, but now
everyone knows the dismal outcome of the war.
Many Kadima members feel that the party should trade in the
Convergence Plan for a different banner, although they are
reluctant to say so openly since Olmert still supports it and
they depend on him politically at the moment. When asked
whether they back the plan they avoid straight answers,
saying that now is not the time to talk about it when there
are more pressing matters to focus on: rehabilitating the
North, stabilizing the IDF, continuing to confront the
Palestinians and dealing with the nuclear threat from Iran.
This is the line that Olmert himself recently adopted.
Ministers Avi Dichter, Shaul Mofaz and Yaakov Edri no longer
believe in the Convergence Plan and even Foreign Minister
Livni and Vice Prime Minister Peres have their doubts.
Kadima — whatever that really is — is very
worried over its political future, and for good reason. Many
Kadima MKs, particularly former Likudniks, continue to attend
the bar mitzvahs and weddings held by Likud Center members as
if they had never moved to Kadima, as if nothing had changed
in the political establishment, and as if they still feel
dependent on the Likud Center to guarantee their political
careers — rather than Kadima.
And if this is not a clear indication of their thoughts and
predictions, what is?
