If someone thought recently that Likud Ministers and MKs were
busily engaged in public activity for the good of the country
and discharging their duties as elected officials, he is
sadly mistaken. They have been occupied by just one thing:
the big poll conducted by the Likudnik website run by Likud
Center member Arik Ziv, which generates a ranking for the
Knesset list in the next elections. The Likudnik story even
reached last week's cabinet meeting when Sharon turned to his
fellow ministers to warn them about the obsessive scurrying
as the big poll was in progress. "I hope you've finished with
the Likudnik Ranking codes and are ready to get back to
work," Sharon fumed.
The Likud Center chooses the Likud Knesset list, of course.
The Likud Center is a relatively small body of about 3,000
people who decide who will be among the 120 candidates for
Knesset and who will have to watch the Knesset plenum from
the side.
The Likudnik Ranking is a large poll which differs from most
other polls. It is far more comprehensive and secretive and
provides the voter plenty of time to reach a decision. The
survey sample is also very large: 1,230 Likud Center members
took part in the last Likudnik Ranking.
Even Arik Ziv admits being surprised by the tumult
surrounding the survey, which was not such a far cry from
what takes place in the party primaries. Deals were hammered
out, secrets were whispered, all the familiar noises and
ringing sounded and apparently even voter fraud took place.
After all things wouldn't be the same without it.
The survey method was as follows: Every Likud Center member
received a voting form at home with a code and password and a
list of all of the candidates for the party's Knesset list.
The code and password precluded the possibility of members
voting twice and of nonmembers making a copy of the form and
casting their vote. Each member was asked to mark 15 names
from the list, just like in the real elections, and had 20
days to cast his vote.
During the course of these 20 days the candidates recruited
all of his supporters and activists to help him win votes as
if it were the real thing. And since not all 3,000 Likud
Center members agreed to participate in the survey, a form-
buying industry emerged, with voting forms sold for up to NIS
300 each. Some candidates spent thousands of shekels to get
ahead in the survey results.
Surprise: Moshe Kachlon
The results of the survey did indeed reflect what is taking
place in this party divided by the Disengagement and the big
showdown between Sharon and Netanyahu over advancing the
primaries.
In first place was Agriculture Minister Yisrael Katz, which
was to be expected. Katz is considered one of the most
powerful figures in the Likud Center and although he did not
resign from the government he is among the ministers who
opposed the Disengagement Plan. Foreign Minister Silvan
Shalom came in second, which was not surprising either.
Shalom is very strongly situated in the Likud Center and
supporting Sharon has not harmed him, even among members who
oppose Sharon.
The bombshell was the third-place candidate, Moshe Kachlon,
who is a prominent figure among the Likud Rebels. Kachlon is
the MK most closely allied with Landau and even headed his
campaign when he vied for the Likud leadership. Considered an
honest, decent, trustworthy MK, Kachlon apparently won
massive support among all of the Disengagement opponents, who
admire him for his integrity and frankness.
Binyamin Netanyahu came in fourth, which must have been a big
disappointment for him after taking first place in the
previous Likudnik survey. But the gaps between the top
candidates were small and Netanyahu's supporters said he made
no special effort to boost his ranking in the survey.
The next five places in order went to Dani Naveh, Likud
Knesset Faction Chairman Gidon Saar, Yuli Edelstein, Tzipi
Livni, Natan Sharansky and Uzi Landau. An analysis of the top
ten shows that only Shalom and Livni voted in favor of the
Disengagement.
Eleventh through twentieth place went, in order, to Ehud
Olmert, Finiyan Tzion, Chaim Katz, Limor Livnat, Tzachi
Hanegbi, Gidon Ezra, Shaul Mofaz, Shama Carmel, Michael
Ratzon and Roni Bar-On. A lot more Disengagement supporters
in this group. Maybe more Likud Center opponents voted.
