Three MKs from the Labor Party were absent from the first
reading on the State Budget and the Arrangements Law —
Ami Ayalon, Shelly Yachimovich and Yoram Marciano. At first
other MKs from Kadima, Labor and the Pensioners Party
threatened not to support the budget, but in the end they all
raised their hands in favor.
Just one week had gone by since the coalition was formed and
already the first buds of rebellion began to appear.
Olmert and top coalition officials realize that based on the
current situation of only 67 members, the coalition has slim
chances of long-term survival. Figures close to Defense
Minister and Labor Party Chairman Amir Peretz predicted that
the present government would last for a year at most. When
his remarks were made public, Peretz had to do damage control
by saying the government would stay in office for at least
four years. But everyone knows what he really thinks.
From the start of the budget talks Yachimovich and Marciano
announced that they had no intention of supporting the
budget. Nadia Hilou joined them but Peretz later persuaded
her to back the budget. Yachimovich and Marciano, however,
was another story.
Kadima MKs Marina Solodkin and Majalli Wahabee are both at
odds with Olmert for not getting any appointments and only
supported the budget after a vigorous persuasion campaign.
And when the Pensioners Party heard about the rise in bread
prices there were also calls from the ranks not to support
the budget. Although Party Chairman Rafi Eitan suppressed
these voices with a single phone call, when one of the party
members was asked in an interview what the party should do if
the price of milk went up too, the reply came loud and clear:
"Resign from the government!"
The 67-member coalition is a far cry from Olmert's original
dream of setting up a coalition numbering 84 MKs. With 84 MKs
nobody — including UTJ and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael
Beiteinu — would pose a real threat if they resigned.
But in a coalition of 67, any one of the parties can tip the
scales. Even the Pensioners, with their seven votes, could
take away the government's majority.
Signs of rebellion in a first vote when a new government
debuts are virtually unprecedented, and in this case the
rebellion intensified in a vote held less than one week
later. This is a recipe for near-term disaster and Olmert,
who knows how to count votes, is well aware of the situation.
That's why he is rushing to bring in UTJ and Meretz —
only he is unwilling to pay their asking price.
Meretz leader Chaim Oron stepped into the office of one of
UTJ's heads last week and said, "I would like to update you
on what's happening in our negotiations with Kadima. It's
going nowhere. They're not offering us anything. Nothing.
They just want to talk us down. It seems to me they are
talking to you to lower our price."
At the end of the conversation the two MKs reached the same
conclusion. If they stand firm there is a chance Kadima will
break and surrender to their demands, for it realizes the
coalition will not survive for long if the buds of rebellion
already started to appear within a week of its formation. The
party needs a boost — and will have to pay for it.
