Surveys conducted since Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's
resignation from the government over the Disengagement
clearly indicate if party elections were held today among the
Likud's 130,000 voters Netanyahu would win by 15 percent.
These results come as no surprise, certainly not to
Netanyahu, who does not make a move without preliminary
surveys.
These are the same Likud voters who voted 60 percent in favor
of the Disengagement Plan just a year-and-a-half ago, which
shows they clearly have right-wing leanings and do not intend
to allow Sharon to continue with his outsider policies. So
why would they possibly elect him to head the party once
again?
To understand how far to the right Likud voters really are,
it should be noted even Uzi Landau—the leader of the
Likud "Rebels" and considered far more right-wing than
Netanyahu— was supported by 17 percent of Likud voters
in the surveys after announcing that he plans to run against
Sharon and Netanyahu in the primaries. Another interesting
statistic: Netanyahu has a lead over Sharon even when Landau
is taken into account, i.e. even when he has to split the
Likud's more conservative voters with another candidate.
All these figures point toward a singular conclusion: if
Sharon wants to keep his post as Prime Minister—and
apparently he does—he will have to swing hard to the
right once the Disengagement process is complete.
Until the Disengagement process is completed in another 4-6
weeks, nothing is going to happen in the realm of politics.
Maybe a bit of talk here and there, but nothing more than
that. But afterwards politics will return to the top of the
national agenda, with a date for general elections to be set
at a certain stage.
Sharon's future depends on the success of the Disengagement
more than any other politician. If blood gets spilled,
chas vesholom, or if full-scale terrorism begins anew
immediately afterwards or if the evacuation takes place under
fire, Sharon will be in real trouble. Not to say if the
Disengagement process succeeds he will be walking on a bed of
roses!
Sharon is hoping that all goes well and the evacuees begin to
rebuild their lives in their new homes and then he, too, will
begin to rebuild himself politically, trying to win back his
fellow party members' affections.
Sharon can accomplish this through several means, for example
by making an unambiguous declaration there will be no more
unilateral disengagements and that no more settlements will
be evacuated without concessions from the Palestinian side.
Of course this will not suffice since nobody would believe
him anymore. Therefore he will have to make some moves and
reach some decisions to strengthen the hold on Jerusalem and
the settlements regarding which there is a relative
consensus.
For example he could pass a law or decision to connect Maaleh
Adumim to Jerusalem and perhaps even Givat Zeev. Or decisions
regarding Gush Etzion. Sharon can do all this in order to
signal to Likudnikim that what he did in Gaza was a one-shot
deal and from now on he is the same old Sharon that the right
and the settlers have always known and loved.
Another possible course of action would be the military-
security track. If terrorism is renewed, chas
vesholom, and certainly in the event of terrorism from
the Gaza Strip (Kassam rockets, mortar shelling, etc.),
Sharon could order a crushing response using means yet to
been put into use. Sharon is capable of responding the way
only he knows how— the Sharon of lore once known as the
man who "does not stop at red." This would give the right no
choice other than to cheer him for his forceful stance
against terrorism and might just lead them to forget the sins
he committed against them.
