In 1997 the PLO published a report, "Demographic Indicators
of the Palestinian Territory, 1997-2015," based on a census
carried out by the PA's Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS).
The report projected that the Arab population west of the
Jordan River will outnumber the Jewish population by 2015.
These numbers were immediately adopted by prominent Israeli
demographers, who warned that by 2020 Jews will make up
between 40 and 46 percent of the overall population of Israel
and the territories. The Palestinian projections put the Arab
population of Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip at 3.83
million and the Israeli Arab population at 1.33 million for a
total of 5.16 million Arabs west of the Jordan River. Israel,
with 5.24 million Jews has no Jewish majority.
These statistics, which accepted as a basis for planning by
everyone from politicians to diplomats to defense officials.
Though at first they were worried over by the Left, in an
interview with Yediot Acharonot in December 2003, Vice
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said: "Above all hovers the cloud
of demographics. It will come down on us not in the end of
days, but in just another few years."
But a team of American and Israeli researchers presented a
study of the Palestinian population statistics at the
American Enterprise Institute and the Heritage Foundation in
Washington. Led by American businessman Bennett Zimmerman and
Israeli strategic consultant Yoram Ettinger, they tried
various means of cross-checking and comparing the Palestinian
data to independent sources of demographic information. For
example, they compared the PCBS data to birth and death
records published by the PA's own Health Ministry. The
checked the PCBS data against immigration and emigration data
from Israel's Border Police and against internal migration
records recorded by the Israeli Interior Ministry.
The researchers also compared Palestinian population data
from the PCBS to voting records of the Palestinian Central
Elections Commission in the 1996 Palestinian elections and
this week's Palestinian elections, as well as to the Israeli
Civil Administration's population survey of Palestinians
carried out in the 1990s before the transfer of authority to
the PA.
The PCBS data was checked against population surveys carried
out by UNRWA and the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics
(ICBS) in the mid-1990s, and against World Bank Palestinian
population studies.
All of the checking led to the conclusion that the
Palestinian population forecasts are faulty in the
extreme.
For one thing, the PCBS count includes the 230,000 Arab
residents of Jerusalem and counts them again as residents of
Israel.
The PCBS numbers also project Palestinian natural growth as 4
to 5 percent per year, among the highest in the world. Yet
Palestinian Ministry of Health records published annually
since 1996 show that Palestinian natural growth rates in
Judea, Samaria and Gaza at around 3 percent, closer to the
rates of neighboring countries such as Egypt and Jordan. The
original data also show a steady pattern of decrease in
natural growth leading to a natural growth rate in 2003 of
just 2.6 percent.
Indeed, the total fertility rate of Palestinian women has
been trending downward in recent years, along with that of
Arab women throughout the Middle East. Palestinian women in
Judea and Samaria averaged 4.1 children in 1999 and 3.4 in
2003. Palestinian women in Gaza averaged 5 children each in
1999 and 4.7 in 2003. The multi-year average of Israel's
compound growth rate from 1990-2004 is 2.5 percent. Israel's
growth rate went down to 1.7 percent between 2000 and 2004,
but a similar decline occurred in Gaza, where growth
decreased from 3.9 percent to 3.0 percent, and in Judea and
Samaria where growth declined from 2.7 percent to 1.8
percent.
The PCBS also projected a net population increase of 1.5
percent per year as a result of immigration from abroad. But
the study's authors found that emigration from the
Palestinian areas has exceeded immigration every year except
one.
The PCBS numbers also include some 200,000 Palestinians who
live abroad, about 13 percent of the Palestinians counted in
1997. According to the PCBS, the population of Nablus is
about the same as that of Tel Aviv, but most press reports
place it at only about 120,000 — less than a third of
Tel Aviv.
The Israeli Interior Ministry announced in November 2003 that
in the preceding decade some 150,000 residents of the
Palestinian Authority had legally moved to Israel (including
Jerusalem). These 150,000 residents remain on the Palestinian
population rolls.
It is interesting to note this internal migration is largely
responsible for the high 3.1 percent annual growth in the
Israeli Arab population. The Israeli Arab natural growth rate
is only 2.1 percent, a figure which is below the Israeli
Jewish growth rate.
The highest current estimate of the study for the current
Palestinian population puts the Palestinian population at
3.06 million, or 770,000 less than the PCBS number. This
number leaves most PCBS assumptions in place and simply
corrects for the double counting.
The average of the last two estimates brought the final
projected number of Palestinians in Gaza, Judea and Samaria
to 2.42 million, only about two-thirds of the 3.8 million
that is the current "official" estimate.
The study claims that the Jewish majority west of the Jordan
River has been stable and is likely to remain for the
foreseeable future. In 1967 Jews made up 64.1 percent of the
overall population and in 2004 they made up 59.5 percent.
Inside Israel proper, including Jerusalem, Jews make up 80
percent of the population.
If the report is correct, it means that many of the planning
assumptions of Israeli leaders were wrong. The entire 117-
page report can be accessed online at
www.pademographics.com.
