Knesset Constitutional Committee Chairman Michael Eitan
recently tabled a bill that would require a referendum on
every significant policy move, such as the removal of
settlements and the return of territory, both of which the
State of Israel has carried out in the past based on
decisions by the government and the Knesset alone.
Israel removed settlements from the Sinai Peninsula at the
time of the Egyptian Peace Treaty, returned territory to
Jordan and transferred land the Palestinian Authority, but in
none of these cases was a demand to hold a referendum
suggested.
In a conversation with reporters in the Knesset building
Sharon responded positively to the idea of holding a
referendum, saying it was important to hear the public's
stance, although one day earlier his associates rejected the
idea, claiming the Prime Minister would prefer to hold
general elections. Apparently what changed his mind were
polls indicating the public clearly backed the idea of
evacuating Jewish settlers from the Gaza Strip.
The State of Israel has never held a referendum on any issue.
European countries, on the other hand, hold referendums
periodically on important issues, such as converting to the
euro or retaining the local form of currency.
Despite Sharon's positive attitude toward the idea, his close
supporters claim the government and the Knesset are voted in
once every four years and during this term they are
authorized to make policy decisions according to the
democratic process. If the public were to reject the
government's decision, there would be no reason for the
government to continue to exist. Therefore they hold it would
be better for the people to decide on the issue through
general elections.
Based on surveys Sharon's backers believe holding elections
on the issue of evacuating the settlements could boost the
Likud and Shinui to as many as 60 mandates, which would
nearly allow them to set up a coalition without any further
reinforcement. In their estimation general elections would
further pulverize Labor and Meretz.
Sharon is well aware he cannot carry out the evacuation of
Gaza under the present government since neither the National
Religious Party nor HaIchud HaLeumi would lend a hand. In the
meantime they are not resigning based on a policy dictated by
HaIchud HaLeumi Chairman Avigdor Lieberman that as long as
nothing concrete takes place they will not pull out of the
government. Lieberman already got burned once when he
withdrew from the government because of talk that never led
to anything. Today he is more prudent. Still, if the
government and the Knesset approve evacuating the settlements
in Gaza, neither Lieberman nor Effi Eitam and the NRP would
stay for a single day.
Sharon is already prepared for that day, which would allow
him to set up a coalition with his good friend, Labor Party
Chairman Shimon Peres. The Labor Party has already announced
it would grant Sharon a safety net for a move to evacuate the
Gaza Strip, but Sharon is not willing to stop there. Neither
is Peres. Both of them want a full coalition partnership.
Sharon told reporters a safety net would not satisfy him, for
a government is not just political decisions and Peres, too,
knows with a safety net no position for him will be found. He
wants a top ministerial post and a job like Deputy Prime
Minister in order to return to center stage. And if these two
wily political foxes want something chances are they will get
it.
Labor's Dilemma
The Labor Party is facing a real dilemma. On one hand it
cannot help supporting Sharon in evacuating the Gaza Strip
since the party itself ran a huge campaign under the slogan,
"To evacuate the Gaza Strip by Pesach." Furthermore the last
thing they now need is early elections. On the other hand
many Labor Party figures cannot come to terms with the
prospect of a unity government under Sharon, particularly due
to the government's economic and social administration, which
reveals a capitalistic worldview on economic issues.
One of the reasons for the party's crash in the last
elections was the fact it sat in a unity government with
Sharon and the legitimacy that granted him for nearly two
years. The public opted to vote for the original, rather than
an imitation. Shimon Peres will try to lead his party to the
government and even received strong backing for this move
from Chaim Rimon, who said that as far as he was concerned
the ends (evacuating the Jewish settlers from Gaza) justified
the means (a unity government). But undoubtedly there are
plenty other Labor figures who would object to the plan and
do whatever they could to torpedo it. MKs like Avraham Burg,
Amram Mitzna, Yuli Tamir and others will try to convince
Labor Center members toward having the party say yes to
evacuating the Gaza Strip and no to joining the
government.
Fears of another major election defeat catching them totally
unprepared could swing them in the direction of joining the
unity government. The party cannot go into Election Day with
an interim chairman; neither can it go into the elections
headed by Grandpa Peres, as if time stood still for the Labor
Party for decades and after thirty years it is being led by
the same individual.
According to political establishment predictions eventually
Sharon will realize his plan to remove the settlements from
Gaza, at which time the Labor Party would have no choice
other than to join the unity government.
