Unlike many previous years, 5762 is a relatively easy year to
summarize. Although there was plenty of political activity,
it can all be summed up in six letters: Sharon. He dominated
the entire Israeli political scene throughout last year,
leaving almost no room for anyone else.
Over the course of the year Sharon presented himself as the
country's most seasoned politician, sweeping all others out
of the way. His achievements in this vein were unmatched,
certainly in the recent past. After having weathered numerous
political battles, in 5762 Sharon outdid himself, reaching
the peak of his career. When he was ousted from his post as
Defense Minister twenty years ago following the Lebanese War
and seen as "muktzeh machmas mi'us" by the general
public, who would have dreamed he would rebound and reach the
heights of Israeli politics, becoming a prime minister with
tremendous power and influence?
Sharon was elected in the middle of 5761. The first half of
the year-and-a-half since he took office was less stellar,
but the latter three-fourths of 5762 proved a more fruitful
period for him. In 5761 he was still hesitant, lacking self-
confidence. But in 5762 the Sharon of legend came out of his
shell, the Sharon who does what he pleases, without pandering
to other people's whims.
His decision to launch Operation Defensive Shield was
undoubtedly a turning point. It won tremendous public backing
and its relative success generated widespread confidence in
him. The encirclement of Arafat in Ramallah and the crushing
of the Palestinian Authority further boosted his
reputation.
Sharon won massive support in public surveys, particularly in
the second half of the year. Today he regularly garners the
support of 60 percent of respondents, sometimes as much as 70
percent and even more, figures far exceeding any posted by
his peers in recent years. This level of backing may be
common in some other countries, but in Israel it is almost
unheard of.
True, terrorist attacks were not halted completely by
Israel's military activities, but beyond a doubt the number
of attacks has dropped sharply, a reduction credited to the
Prime Minister. The public clearly perceives Sharon as not
stuck in a rut, but constantly seeking new solutions to the
problem of terrorism and fighting it with all of the means at
his disposal.
Meanwhile he has also managed to steer policy in a manner
that increases confidence. Time after time he has repeated
statements that he is interested in peace and a political
solution, which he has even described on some occasions,
while letting out the reins a bit to various (Labor party)
figures who are especially involved in the political process.
He has been wary not to pick too many fights with Shimon
Peres, allowing him to meet with Palestinians and advance
various plans, up to a certain point. Sharon is smart enough
to know that everything will eventually be placed on his
table for final approval, so he has little to lose by
allowing Peres to play around with conjecture ("It seems to
me . . . ") and supposition, and Sharon can collect the
political dividends.
The Prime Minister has also succeeded in building great
relations with US President George W. Bush and the rest of
the US top-ranking political echelon. Sharon has received
just about all the support he has asked the United States to
provide. Israel could not expect any greater sympathy and
support from the US. Washington backed the Israeli position
vis-a-vis the Palestinians every step of the way, and all of
the credit went to Sharon.
He and his staff invested great efforts into marketing the
Israeli position it to the Americans. Sharon himself flew to
the US six times during the year to meet with President Bush,
in addition to phone calls with him and conversations and
meetings with the Secretary of State, the National Security
Advisor, the Secretary of Defense, the Vice President and
others.
The backing he received from the US helped considerably.
Without it Sharon would not have been able to win such
widespread popularity and support at home. He shrank the
local Left down to size, largely thanks to the US support.
The only issue to cast a shadow over Sharon's popularity was
the economy. Both economic and social affairs have shown
steady declines during the past year. Although Sharon cut
budget allocations and allowances, these cuts did not help
much. The public was still disappointed in this area, and
when Shas and UTJ voted against him following the cuts, he
fired Shas ministers and deputy ministers and the UTJ deputy
ministers on the spot.
The public perceived this move as a display of resolve and
leadership in handling the economy, conveying the message
that the step was taken to prevent economic collapse and to
demonstrate that the government is not a free-for-all in the
area of economics. This marked another turning point for
Sharon. After the firings his approval ratings shot sky-high,
far beyond even his own expectations. The aftermath and the
subsequent debasement of Shas, which eventually returned to
the government with nothing to show for its pains, also
played to Sharon's advantage.
And of course who can forget his shining success in keeping
the Unity Government intact? Sharon's government passed many
tests during the course of the year and saw many ups and
downs, but he managed to keep the ship afloat, thereby
winning over many important figures from Left and Center. As
a seasoned politician, Sharon quickly recognized that the
Labor Party was in a state of crisis, and he took full
advantage of this.
Without a doubt Sharon is the Man of the Year in Israeli
politics. It would be a safe bet to say he will win this
title in the media simply because there are no challengers.
His presence left no room for anybody else, conquering and
dominating the entire political arena.
Binyamin Ben Eliezer
Security Minister Binyamin Ben Eliezer posted a mixed year.
He was clearly the next most prominent political figure after
Sharon. At the beginning of the year, defying all of the
surveys and predictions, Ben Eliezer ran away with the Labor
Party primaries and took over the party. Later he managed to
maneuver past various obstacles and pitfalls set for him by
fellow party members, proving he had the upper hand on the
Labor Party.
Despite all of the attempts to unseat and block him from
within, he also managed to keep the Labor Party in the
government. Although many tried to get it out, Ben Eliezer
guarded his seat zealously. After all he had gone through to
secure it, he was not about to give up the Defense Ministry
without a fight. Ben Eliezer was allied with Sharon and
together they steered the nation in the direction they saw
fit.
Within the Defense Ministry Ben Eliezer can also add some
notches to his belt and look back on the past year with
satisfaction. He can attribute the relative success in the
war against terrorism to himself as much as to Ariel Sharon,
and he also showed all those who scoffed when he became
defense minister that he could do as good a job as the
generals who preceded him.
Ben Eliezer's problem is that he is not perceived as capable
of capturing the office of prime minister and leading the
nation. Surveys also predict a decline in the Labor Party's
sway in the next elections, which is blamed on Ben
Eliezer.
Another problem placed on Ben Eliezer's doorstep--only at the
end of the year, giving him next year to tackle it--was Mr.
Amram Mitzne. The Haifa mayor entered national politics in a
flurry. In one fell swoop he knocked Ben Eliezer out of his
position as a shoo-in at the upcoming Labor Party primaries,
leaving him a runner-up. Although Ben Eliezer has succeeded
in closing the gap recently, he appears to be headed for
defeat. Only his organizing skills, his ambition and his
perseverance could save the day against an upstart who is
leaving Ben Eliezer in the dust.
Binyamin Netanyahu
One of the big losers this year was former prime minister
Binyamin Netanyahu. At the beginning of the year and even at
the halfway point it appeared Netanyahu would beat Sharon in
the next Likud Party primaries. For a long time Netanyahu led
Sharon in Likud surveys by 20 percent and it seemed nothing
would alter the situation. Netanyahu and his staffers walked
around with smiles on their faces, waiting for the big day to
arrive.
But meanwhile Sharon was getting little rest. He, too, read
the opinion polls and took steps to change them. Defensive
Shield, the Shas firings, the siege on Arafat, the capture of
the Karine A, the assassinations of terrorist leaders, the
torpedoing of Labor and the Left -- all raised Sharon's
popularity not only in the general public, but among Likud
voters as well, until eventually he achieved a turnaround.
Sharon took the lead among Likud faithful in the polls.
Although he held only a 5 percent advantage, this was a
considerable achievement since he had been trailing by 20
percent.
Currently Sharon and Netanyahu are running about even in
Likud polls, exchanging the lead frequently. If the current
situation continues, every vote will count. The two
contenders are in very different situations: as the incumbent
prime minister, Sharon can take steps to improve his
position, while all Netanyahu has at his disposal is his
mouth and media exposure, but he knows well how to use both
to his advantage.
Netanyahu could have been prime minister today instead of
Sharon, but he passed up the opportunity. Now perhaps he has
his regrets. Netanyahu did not believe Sharon would be able
to hold out for so long, but his predictions have proven
false. Sharon is holding up quite well in fact, and it
appears Netanyahu could wind up paying a high price for
passing up his chance when opportunity knocked.
