Israel will end the current wave of Palestinian terrorism
"within a number of months," Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told
Jewish organizational leaders in Moscow last Monday, a day
after lifting the siege around Palestinian Authority Chairman
Yasser Arafat's Mukata compound in Ramallah under American
pressure.
Once the terror has ended, Sharon said, "we will move the
diplomatic process forward." He did not say how he would end
terrorism or in which ways he would move the diplomatic
process forward.
As vague and opaque as it was, the statement does provide
significant insight into Sharon's expectations for the coming
months, and his plans for the next election, which must be
held no later than about a year from now.
The prime minister apparently believes that the pressure
applied by the Israeli armed forces and security services are
having an effect, and that this will prove decisive in the
intermediate future. It is unlikely that Sharon is assuming
any diplomatic breakthrough. Also, if the terror does end in
the coming months, it will make Sharon very strong in the
upcoming elections -- probably unbeatable both within the
Likud and in the general elections. The rightward shift in
the Israeli electorate makes it likely that Sharon's party
will also emerge as very strong.
Sharon has recently come under a barrage of criticism for his
handling of the Mukata affair. After a homicide bomb in Tel
Aviv on Succos, Israeli forces surrounded Arafat's compound
in Ramallah (known as the Mukata), and destroyed all of it
except for one building that sheltered about 200 including 19
terrorists that Israel wants to arrest and try. Israel said
that it would not lift the siege until it had the wanted
terrorists, but after about a week and a half it was forced
by American pressure to withdraw.
Arafat emerged claiming victory. Israeli spokesmen
acknowledged that they bowed to American pressure.
Arafat got a few hours of favorable press coverage, but his
buildings were destroyed. His success was not due to his own
efforts and it seems likely that in a few days his situation
will be no better than it was before the siege. Curfews and
restrictions imposed by the IDF remain in force in Ramallah
as well as elsewhere in the PA areas.
On chol hamoed shots were fired from Beit Jallah at Gilo.
However the IDF decided not to retaliate when they observed
residents of Beit Jallah beating the gunmen and chasing them
away.
A senior Israeli diplomatic source quoted in the Jerusalem
Post hinted that the wanted men who were in the Mukata
will be targeted if they leave the compound. The source said
critics of the siege should wait a few weeks before passing
judgment on its wisdom. He said critics should keep in mind
that the action came in response to a terror attack in Tel
Aviv that left five people dead. "We have the right to
respond," he said.
According to this source, the US asked Israel to lift the
siege not because it does not recognize Israel's right to
self-defense but because right now -- with the attack on Iraq
pending and the US demanding Iraq abide by UN Security
Council resolutions -- it created "problems."
"The US explained that this action at this time and in that
place caused difficulties for an action that both the US and
Israel deem as very important," he said.
Another Israeli source said that when the cameras inevitably
turn elsewhere, Arafat will wake up to see that his compound -
- largely destroyed by IDF bulldozers -- has ceased to become
a refuge for wanted terrorists, and that the boost to his
status was only temporary.
Construction and Housing Minister Natan Sharansky said the
government had failed to take into account how the US would
react to the operation as a possible hindrance to its plans
to attack Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.
Education Minister Limor Livnat said that it "took courage"
to accede to the US pressure to end the operation. She noted
that apparently both the cabinet and security officials had
misjudged the situation. At the same time, she said she never
heard any security official express reservations about the
operation before it was initiated.
Palestinian legislators were busy organizing a new PLC
session to renew the drive for reform. Fatah legislator Nabi
Amr met with Speaker Ahmed Qurei (Abu Ala) to discuss
convening the PLC to renew the debate about reform and call
upon Arafat to appoint a new cabinet and add a prime
minister. The cabinet officially resigned a month ago after
legislators threatened to vote against it. This is the
process that had put Arafat under unexpected pressure when it
was halted by the Israeli siege. It seems likely to continue
where it left off.
Arafat was supposed to present his new government on October
3, but that session will be postponed to give him time to
recover from the siege, an aide to Qurei said.
Other legislators said reforms cannot be delayed. Several
legislators from Fatah said people went out of their way to
break the curfews and demonstrate for Arafat, but now he
needs to give something back to the people.
