As I write this, I know full well that people will disagree
with what I say. The writer who wrote, "Everyone is entitled
to my opinion" had a valid point.
Statistics is the branch of mathematics concerned with the
collection and interpretation of data. For meaningful
interpretation, there has to be a large amount of data.
Unfortunately, many statistics which are published are not
based on thousands or even hundreds, but on tens. This is why
statistics can lie. Probability, i.e., the likelihood or
chance that something will happen, plays a major role in the
study of statistics. Statistics play a major role in our
lives, be it in medicine, insurance, traffic and most other
walks of life. Opinions, especially in the media, are also
part of our lives, whether consciously or subconsciously.
In recent years, there has been a drive in many Western
countries for people to go for medical tests, in order for
cancer to be detected at an early stage. This past year, the
drive has accelerated, targeting some particular types of
cancer, especially in women. The lectures are convincing, the
statistics even more so, and we believe them. Today, I read
an article in The New York Times disproving these
statistics up to a point. That is not to say that women
should neglect themselves or ignore danger signals. I am just
trying to make the point that not all statistics agree with
each other.
*
We have been told that praise is excellent for children and
should be used in full measure. It is excellent medicine for
adults, too. However, in a recent piece of research conducted
amongst 44 young women, it was found that praise was not an
unmixed blessing. The women were given general knowledge
tests, and half of them were praised liberally, and told that
they were well above average intelligence, and that the world
was open to them in academic fields. The others were allowed
to complete the questionnaire without any praise. The average
marks were about the same.
In a follow up test, the women who had been praised so
fulsomely were filled with anxiety and apprehension before
embarking on the paper. The others were not in the least
anxious but their marks were lower than the first group's.
The women reported that they were anxious because they knew
that excellence was expected of them. If we tell our little
boy who comes home with 100% in his test that he has done
very well, that is fine. He knows it himself. If we tell him,
"You're really a genius," or "You're going to be the greatest
talmid chochom one day," we may be placing too heavy a
burden on his shoulders. Thus say the psychologists. Then,
again, it may be something he CAN live up to...
Just before World War I, a man called Ferdinand Foch
remarked, "The airplane? A very nice toy, but it has
absolutely no military value." He was largely responsible for
the Allied victory of the Marne; he was commander-in-chief of
the Allied armies and launched the Allied advance in July
1918 which ended the war. He was entitled to his opinion
about the uses of the plane, and people believed him.
We hear that microwaves are dangerous. We hear that they are
not. [Sugar is bad for you, but then again, children deprived
of sugar will suffer -- physiologically. Milk and eggs?
Healthful or not? Remember cholesterol? Now there's good and
bad cholesterol. And studies now say that cutting down to
only three eggs a week is too drastic for this excellent
source of protein and iron, etc.]
"It said so in the paper, so it must be true" is a fallacy.
Be strict with your child; be lenient. Coffee/chocolate is
good for you; coffee/chocolate is not. The only things we can
know are true without any doubt at all are in the Torah and
the opinions of daas Torah [and sometimes even daas
Torah can be distorted from mouth to mouth and must be
heard straight from the source!].
People on the whole are gullible. We do believe things we see
in print, and we do believe things we hear, even if the
opinion is not based on our hashkofos. The fact
remains that as groups of researchers publish their findings,
pieces of research may contradict each other, as may
statistics; even if there is absolute proof! Without
research, the modern world would not be what it is. Knowing
all this, we have to realize that we must keep an open mind
and sometimes be brave enough to draw our own conclusions.
