Perhaps starting a year to the day from the beginning of the
intifadah (both were on erev Rosh Hashanah) a fragile cease
fire has broken out in Israel. Incitement on Palestinian media
is down and attacks against Israelis have decreased,
especially inside the Green Line.
Driven by the worldwide pressure as a result of the attacks on
the World Trade Center (which the Palestinian street
celebrated), Arafat felt that he had to call a cease fire.
However, this does not mean that Arafat has changed his
overall strategy that uses violence as a key component. Most
Palestinians believe the cease-fire is just temporary,
according to the most recent IDF assessment.
"From Arafat's point of view this is only a temporary
adjustment and all of his people understand exactly what he
means," said a senior IDF officer. "They get their
understandings not just by what he says, but also by what he
does. So far, he has made no arrests and not foiled any
attacks."
"They know what he really, really wants and that is no attacks
inside the Green Line, and no street dancing before the
cameras," he added.
Arafat has apparently spread the word that he wants the
violence reduced, but he has not initiated a crackdown on the
terrorist organizations.
A senior security source said Arafat is searching to achieve a
balance of improving his image in the West without giving up
his use of terrorism, which is the fundamental tool of the
Palestinian struggle. He also said that the expected US
retaliation against Osama bin Laden and in the Middle East
would not have a serious impact in the Palestinian-Israeli
conflict.
"In their hearts many Palestinians are with bin Laden and this
has nothing to do with Israel," he said, adding that the
Palestinians would likely feel the urge to react to any
American retaliation, but that would not have much impact on
the current desire to carry out attacks on Israel.
There is intense jockeying and political fighting about
meetings between Foreign Minister Shimon Peres and Arafat. The
Labor members of the governing coalition want them to go ahead
as scheduled, while those on the right are strongly against
them until there is an absolute cease fire for at least two
days.
Senior security officials said they are not concerned about
the eventuality of Israel being left out of any US-brokered
coalition against terrorism.
"We have been used to fighting terrorism without a coalition
anyway. We don't need a coalition. We do need cooperation. We
are going to continue to cooperate whether we are part of a
coalition or not," said the officer.
He explained that in the long run, the world would have to
decide whether it is truly going to expand its war against bin
Laden to a real war on terrorism. In that case, Israel would
benefit.
"In the short run, it's annoying and frustrating to see some
countries on the list as possible candidates for the
coalition," he said. "But eventually they can't escape it and
they'll have to take action against terrorism. Israel will
gain."
