"The strategic balance in the Middle East is clearly in
Israel's favor. This positive strategic balance prevents the
struggle with the Palestinians from deteriorating into a
regional war," according to Professor Shai Feldman, head of
the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies of Tel Aviv
University. The surrounding Arab nations have nothing to
gain and much to lose if war with Israel breaks out.
Presenting its biennial Middle East Military Balance, Prof.
Feldman, said Israel's deterrent capability "remains
robust." "The interest of most Arab states is to maintain
stability and to avoid becoming embroiled in a general war
against Israel," Feldman said. "But it does not say that we
may not find ourselves in a spiral of escalation with Syria.
It does not negate the possibility that [Syrian President]
Bashar Assad, through miscalculation or mis-assessment,
would give the green light to Hizbullah... and this could
lead to a chain reaction. Our view of the likelihood of this
is very low.
"There are no signs that the changeover from the Clinton
administration to the Bush administration has resulted in
any negative change in the quality and intensity of US-
Israeli defense ties," he added.
According to the military balance released yesterday by the
JCSS, it appears that the IDF is getting stronger and
stronger, while all the Arab armies except for Egypt's are
in a state of procurement paralysis.
Egypt's military has been equipped by the US with top Abram
tanks, F-16 fighter jets, and the region's most powerful
navy.
Feldman said that time is not necessarily on Israel's side,
as Iran and Iraq will one day obtain weapons of mass
destruction and the long-range missiles needed to deliver
them to Israel.
But for now, Feldman said, the IDF was leaping ahead in its
military technology, advanced weaponry, and communication
and intelligence capabilities. One figure in the Military
Balance never before released to the public was that the IDF
now has 1,280 advanced Merkava tanks. Israel has a total of
about 4000 tanks. Egypt has some 2,500 but only 10 percent
are advanced, while the Syrians have 3,500 tanks of which
about 1500 are advanced.
Israel is at a disadvantage in artillery, with only 1,250
canon. Egypt has 3,500 artillery pieces and Syria about
3,000.
In the air, Israel is clearly in charge with some 620 planes
all of which are considered advanced. Syria has about 500
warplanes, but their most recent purchase of warplanes was
in 1987 when they received 20 MIG 29s from Russia. Egypt has
about 460 warplanes and about half are considered
advanced.
The Egyptian navy is the largest in the Middle East with 70
warships including 4 submarines. More submarines are on
order. Syria's navy is not in good shape, and not even one
submarine is operational due to staff difficulties. Israel
has a total of about 25 warships including 6 submarines but
three of those are due to be retired soon.
One area where the Arab armies have invested is in surface-
to-surface missiles. Yiftach Shapir, co-editor of the
Military Balance, said Syria now had 26 Scud
launchers.
Israel's Arrow anti-missile system, in part funded by the
United States, is supposed to provide an answer to the
threat of surface-to-surface missiles.
"Whatever is happening in this conflict with the
Palestinians or Hizbullah doesn't make the smallest dent in
Israel's nuclear capability," said Brig.-Gen. (res.) Shlomo
Brom, a senior research associate at the center. "But at the
same time, Israel's nuclear capability is not relevant at
all to what is happening in the conflict with the
Palestinians or with Hizbullah, because we are talking about
totally different dimensions."
Brom, who retired from the IDF in 1998 after heading the
Strategic Planning Division, said the Palestinians
miscalculated when they thought they could imitate the
Hizbullah in Lebanon.
Feldman said that Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser
Arafat has reached a "turning point." "Arafat realizes that
[in] the overall configuration of forces, both domestic and
external, there has to be some change in direction," Feldman
said.
He added that one of the difficulties is discerning when the
Palestinians have concluded that the cost of their conflict
is intolerable, since there is some ambiguity over how
Palestinian discontent with its leadership could be
measured. But he questioned whether Israel's government
would be able to withstand public pressure for retaliation
if another terrible attack occurred.
"The next stage is quite clear," Brom ventured. "That is, to
enter the Palestinian areas, capture some territory for a
period of time, clean it out by collecting weapons and
arresting suspects, and then withdrawing."
