For Ariel Sharon, being between Netanyahu and Peres is like
getting stuck between a rock and a hard place. Peres pulls
him to the left while Netanyahu tugs him to the right.
Recently Netanyahu raised the stakes in his criticism of
Sharon. He called on the Knesset to cancel the Oslo Accords,
which have demonstrated their collapse, and lodged harsh
criticism against Sharon's policy of restraint, although he
expressed his support for continuing the unity
government.
Netanyahu's criticisms do not take place in a vacuum. His
tactics are based on opinion polls that show Sharon's
massive support base draws on the support of left-of-center
voters more than right-of-center voters. According to his
survey data, if Likud primaries were held today, he would be
elected party chairman by a respectable majority. These
surveys also show that the further right his positions
swing, the more his support base within the Likud would
increase and the more he would widen the gap between him and
Sharon.
Netanyahu's current stances would not prevent him from doing
a 180-degree turnaround at some point in the future and to
assume a dead-center platform. If and when Netanyahu defeats
Sharon and is selected Likud chairman and candidate for
prime minister, there is no chance that he would maintain
his current platform, for he, too, knows that in order to
win a general election, he will have to move toward the
center--to lean slightly to the left and a bit to the right.
Somewhere in the middle. A clearly stated right-wing
platform won't get you to the Prime Minister's Office.
Meanwhile, Sharon, for his part, gives Peres backing when
the latter meets with Arafat in spite of right-wing
protests, and during last week's Likud party meeting in the
Knesset, he even helped his Foreign Minister escape major
attacks against him by the skin of his teeth. On the other
hand he is passing a resolution in the security cabinet
stipulating that every Palestinian terrorist attack from now
on--whether or not there are casualties--will lead to an
appropriate military response by the IDF. A wink to the
Right and a second wink to the Left.
On Sunday the Likud Center convened. Originally a series of
decisions on internal matters--including scheduling the
internal elections for the convention and for the branch
councils and setting a date for the convention itself--but
in the end all of this was pushed aside. These issues are
steeped in a substantive dispute between the Sharon and
Netanyahu camps. Sharon's camp would like the conference to
be held now while Netanyahu supporters want to postpone the
conference for another year and a half at least. This time
postponing the discussion of these issues prevented the
first open conflict between these two figures and their
supporters, but not to worry, the time will come. Next time
around.
Right-Wing Ministers Form Alliance
Ministers from the Ichud HaLeumi-Yisrael Beiteinu Party,
Rechav'om Ze'evi and Avigdor Lieberman, are in a real bind.
They are positioned at the far right of Sharon's government,
and their influence is negligible. The two joined the Sharon
government believing they would carry some political weight,
but the truth came flying in their faces. Their political
weight is nominal, and they are dismayed that Shimon Peres
and his allied ministers from the Labor Party are the ones
throwing their weight around.
For the last two months Ze'evi has been pressuring members
of his party to resign from the government, but they have
yet to respond. Lieberman, who is minister of national
infrastructures--a very important portfolio that he would
not be willing to abandon very easily--led a move within the
dual party against Ze'evi's wishes. Several weeks ago, when
the security situation was continuing to decline and Ze'evi
was continuing to press for resignation, the two reached a
very interesting decision that is unprecedented in political
history: to remain in the government, but to boycott
meetings as a form of protest against the failure to act
against Palestinian terror.
For three weeks the two ministers boycotted the meetings,
yet this seemed to make no impression on Prime Minister
Ariel Sharon, who did not respond to any of Lieberman and
Ze'evi's demands. In fact, he did just the opposite,
continuing to back Peres and Peres' meetings with Arafat, to
the great displeasure of the two right-wing ministers.
Lieberman, who realized that the boycott had run its course
without much success, realized that he would have to make
another move, but still refused to consider resignation. On
Sunday Ze'evi and Lieberman took their seats at the
government's table once again, with Lieberman trying to
organize a more serious right-wing opposition within the
government in order to counterbalance Peres' influence.
Lieberman is hoping to set up an alliance of right-wing
ministers that would include the following: Tzachi Hanegbi,
Limor Livnat, Uzi Landau, Robbi Rivlin and of course
Rechav'om Ze'evi and himself. Shas ministers--at least Eli
Suissa and Shlomo Benizri--could also join the list.
Their greatest concern is that Peres will try to lure Sharon
into signing further agreements with the Palestinians, and
they see preventing such a move as their primary task.
A Jewish Minority
Last week the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Security Committee
held a meeting to discuss regional demographics, and the
forecasts were grim. Professor Arnon Sofer, an expert on
demographics at Haifa University, said that the demographic
situation in Israel has become an existential threat. He
added that in another twenty years the Jews will be a
minority in Eretz Yisroel, including Judea, Samaria and the
Gaza Strip. The Jewish population will be only 42%, while
the Arab population will reach 58%.
"The track we are now on poses an existential threat to the
State of Israel," said Sofer. "I am very concerned. If this
trend persists and the problem is not taken care of, the
State will cease to exist in another 15 years. There will be
a collapse. I am very worried about the Jewish people and
the State."
Sofer noted that the territory of Eretz Yisroel, including
the Palestinian Authority, has the highest rate of natural
population increase in the world. According to statistics,
the rate of natural population increase in Israel and the
Palestinian Authority, not including the Gaza Strip, comes
to 3.5%. In Gaza the rate of natural increase reaches 4.5%-
5%. Among Bedouins the rate is 4%. "This means the
population will double every 17 years, which is
unprecedented worldwide," said Professor Sofer.
"Imagine what will take place in Gaza in another 20 years,"
Sofer added. "It will be a demographic disaster zone. There
will be a population explosion and they will be lined up
along our fences. The Jewish people will be a minority in
the region within 20 years. This growth rate will also lead
to ecological collapse. Problems related to water, roads and
crowding will become overwhelming. According to predictions,
the population growth and ecological and urban problems
could induce our children and grandchildren to emigrate of
their own free will."
As believers we do not have the faintest shadow of a doubt
that we will not be forsaken--"hinei lo yonum velo yishon
Shomer Yisroel"--and that Shomer Yisroel does not
take population figures into account, but if these
predictions come true, the situation in the region will
become very difficult.
Sofer says that in 1990 research showed that Israel had
already become one of the most crowded countries in the
world. "If we eliminate the Negev, which is used [primarily]
for defense and military training, Israel is in first place
around the world in terms of crowding."
Knesset members Ron Cohen, Chaim Ramon and others concluded
that we should separate ourselves from the Palestinians as
quickly as possible and create a buffer between us and
them.
At the opening of the meeting Committee Chairman Dan Meridor
rejected Hashem Mahameed's claim that the discussion was
racist in nature. Mahameed then decided to boycott the
meeting.
