(Distributed by GPO)
In contrast with the numbers published in the Palestinian
census of February 9, 2008, the accurate number of Judea &
Samaria Arabs is 1.5 million, and not 2.3 million, and the
number of Gaza Arabs is 1.1 million, and not 1.5 million.
The Palestinian census figures are refuted by Palestinian,
Israeli and international documentation of birth, death,
migration, first-graders and eligible voter registration in
Judea, Samaria and Gaza, which has been systematically
conducted by the Bennett Zimmerman-led American-Israeli
Demographic Research Group (AIDRG).
While the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS)
contends a 30 percent population growth during the last 10
years, the World Bank documents a substantial erosion of the
Palestinian fertility rate and a significant escalation of
emigration from Judea, Samaria and Gaza. The World Bank
documents a 32 percent gap between the number of first
graders per PCBS projections (24 percent increase) and per
Palestinian Ministry of Education actual school documentation
(8 percent decrease).
A strange "coincidence" has produced conformity between the
2007 census and the PCBS 1997 projection for 2007, in spite
of dramatic volatility in the areas of security, economics
and politics, which has occurred since 1997, and which has
caused a boost in Palestinian emigration and decline in
fertility. For example, terrorism and counter-terrorism, the
Hamas-Fatah war, unprecedented (over 30 percent)
unemployment, the rise in the price of oil and a
corresponding rise in demand for manpower in the Arab oil
producing countries, intensive UNRA and PCBS-led family
planning, an unprecedented reduction of teen-pregnancy, a
swift urbanization process, an all-time-high Palestinian
divorce rate, an impressive expansion of the education system
and the increase in Palestinian median wedding-age. The 1997
PCBS projections have been refuted annually by the
documentation produced by the Palestinian Ministries of
Health and Education and Election Commission, as well as by
Israel's Border Police and European observers, monitoring
exists and entries through Israel's, Judea, Samaria and
Gaza's international passages.
While the 2007 census ignores the increaed emigration
phenomenon, Israel's Border Police and the European observers
have documented net emigration of 12,000 in 2004, 16,000 in
2005 and 25,000 in 2006, with expectation of a significant
rise in the scope of 2007 net emigration. The extent of 1997-
2003 average annual net emigration was over 10,000, which has
characterized the entire period since 1950!
According to the PCBS website, the 2007 census was based on
the 1997 census, which was added to by 30 percent, growing
exponentially by the year. In contrast with internationally
accepted demographic standards, the 1997 census included
325,000 residents who stayed abroad for over a year, as well
as students who studied overseas, irrespective of their study
period. Israel subtracts from its census Israelis who are
away for over a year, and only restores them following 90
days of stay in Israel. The 1997 census included 210,000
Israeli Arabs bearing Israeli I.D. cards who were doubly-
counted: as Israeli Arabs by Israel's Central Bureau of
Statistics and as West Bank Arabs by the PCBS.
In summary, the 2007 census for Judea & Samaria was inflated
by 53 percent, and the Jewish-Arab proportion west of the
Jordan River — without Gaza — documents a robust
Jewish majority of 67 percent, compared with a 33 percent
Jewish minority in 1947, including Gaza. The most effective
symptom of the transformation — from Arab to Jewish
demographic momentum — has been the absolute annual
number of Jewish and Arab births within Israel's "Green
Line." While the number of annual Arab births stagnated at
39,000 between 1995 to 2007, the number of annual Jewish
births catapulted by 40 percent from 80,400 in 1995 to
112,000 in 2007.
There is a demographic problem, but it is not lethal. There
is no demographic machete at Israel's throat and the
demographic tailwind is Jewish, not Arab. In fact, documented
births, deaths and migration clarify that Jewish demography
has become a strategic asset and not a liability. Awareness
of demographic reality could enhance the security, political,
strategic, diplomatic and economic options of Israeli doves
and hawks alike.
