Both Labor and the Likud claim that the in-depth opinion
surveys they have been conducting indicate growing
dissatisfaction with Kadima, with increasing lack of faith in
Vice PM Ehud Olmert. Spokesmen for the respective parties say
Kadima is starting to get nervous, realizing there is still a
long way to go until the elections and that their mandate
haul could fall as low as 30.
Likud campaign officials point to two main factors that led
to the apparent loss of faith in Kadima:
1) The evacuation of Amona. The public perceived it as
thoughtless brutality toward Jews and was unable to
comprehend why the evacuation of tens of thousands of people
and dozens of communities in Gush Katif went relatively
peacefully while the evacuation of nine homes involved
hundreds of injuries.
2) The Hamas' rise to power and the sense that Olmert and his
government lack the resolve needed to confront them or to
provide the military response needed.
The Likud claims more and more people who have declared their
intentions to vote Kadima are wavering and could choose
another party, whether the Likud or HaIchud HaLeumi, on
Election Day. The party says many right-wing voters backed
the Likud in the previous elections and crossed the lines to
Kadima, believing it to be a second Likud.
"Now they are beginning to realize Kadima is far from being a
second Likud," says a ranking Likud figure. "That it is more
a second Labor or a second Meretz. There is definitely a
chance in the end these people will come back to us."
According to surveys conducted by the Labor Party many people
who always voted based on political and security concerns now
realize the state of the economy is no less an issue. Says a
party spokesman, "We have an added value in the economic
realm lacking in Kadima, which was a full partner in the
government that brought the worst poverty in the history of
the State of Israel."
One way or another the main problem both for Labor and the
Likud is leadership. The public has little confidence in Amir
Peretz and feels he is not yet ready for the prime minister's
office. It's hard to see someone who has never held a post
any higher than council head of Sderot and chairman of the
Histadrut take over as prime minister of Israel — one
of the hardest jobs in the world.
As for Netanyahu, many people are still licking their wounds
following the damage he wrought. With all due respect for
saving the Israeli economy from total collapse, like in
Argentina, the average citizen is primarily watching out for
his own pocket. The upswing at the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange
matters little to those who cannot make ends meet.
If Labor or the Likud were led by a figure the public could
put its faith in, the sun would not be shining so bright on
Kadima.
High Turnover
Hanging on the walls of the second floor of the main Knesset
building are posters of every Knesset since the founding of
the State of Israel. Each poster shows the Knesset chairman
and deputy chairman at the top and the prime minister and his
ministers in the middle surrounded by the rest of the MKs
from the various parties. At the bottom, off to the side, are
MKs who came in as replacements during the course of the term
as well as the Knesset secretary and his assistants.
Each of these framed "yearbook pictures" contains a total of
130-140 small photos. The poster for the present Knesset is
packed with photos, including many who entered in the last
six months.
The record for the greatest number of replacements
undoubtedly goes to the Labor Party. It won 19 mandates and
last week Dani Koren, who was at the 30th spot on the list,
took his seat in the Knesset. More than ten Labor MKs
resigned during the term, some after three years (Amram
Mitzna, Beiga Shochat, Shimon Peres, Chaim Ramon and Dalia
Itzik) and others after a period of 1-2 days.
The total number of replacements in all parties came to 15,
representing 12.5 percent. It is indeed a high rate that says
much about the caliber of the outgoing Knesset.
