Binyamin Netanyahu, Shaul Mofaz or Silvan Shalom. One of the
three will be the next Likud chairman and party candidate for
the office of prime minister. With all due respect to Uzi
Landau, he'll have to try his luck another time. If Landau
does win it would be a real shake-up for the Likud, for
Landau is a genuine right-winger, unlike the former three who
are essentially pragmatists who differ from Sharon in word
but not much in deed.
If the Likud wants to survive it will have to put Shalom, or
better yet Mofaz, at the helm. Just a few years ago Netanyahu
was an asset to the Likud, whereas today he has become a
burden. Both Sharon and Peretz would love to see Netanyahu
win in the primaries. Such an easy rival would allow both of
them to knock out the Likud and realize the recent surveys
that predict a mere 12-15 mandates for the Likud.
Truth be told Netanyahu is not entirely to blame for his
current lack of popularity. Granted he did direct a
detrimental and insulting policy toward the underclass and
exacerbate poverty in the country, but he had good
intentions. Certainly he did not plan on arriving at the
elections in such a state.
Netanyahu received a country in poor economic condition. It
was truly on the brink of economic collapse. He cut and cut,
wherever he could, privatized every public entity that moved
and filled the public coffers with billions of shekels. These
funds can now be used to address poverty, but he will not get
the credit unless he winds up back in the Prime Minister's
Office or the Finance Minister's office—both of which
are highly unlikely.
The harm done to the chareidi public also has to be
rectified. The greatest harm was done by Ariel Sharon and
nobody will try to rob him of this dubious title. The cut in
Children's Allowances began under the previous Sharon
government when Netanyahu was still a private citizen. During
the present government Netanyahu accepted the continued cuts
as a done deed based on the coalition agreement with Shinui.
The elimination of the Religious Affairs Ministry, the
funding cuts for yeshivas, kollelim and religious
services were also due to the coalition agreement, which
Netanyahu had had no part in. If anyone had played a part in
the agreement it was Ehud Olmert, his rival and successor as
Finance Minister.
But a long time has gone by since Shinui was booted from the
government and Netanyahu had his chance. But instead of
fixing matters he offered one excuse after another. Although
this is an indication of his stance on the damage done, still
the figure who failed to repair the building cannot be
compared to the architect who designed it, i.e. Ariel
Sharon.
None of this will do Netanyahu any good. His image has been
destroyed in every sector, particularly among traditional
Likud voters who were hit hardest by his budget cuts.
With Netanyahu as its head the Likud might as well consign
itself to the opposition bench right now. On the other hand
both Mofaz and Shalom can provide a real answer to Sharon and
Peretz.
Like it or not Amir Peretz' election brought the issue of
ethnic background to the fore. Both Shalom and Mofaz are
Sephardic and Sephardic voters who used to vote Likud and are
now considering voting Labor because of Peretz can continue
to vote Likud, which would in that case also be headed by a
Sephardic candidate.
Both of them are also considered moderates, certainly
compared to Netanyahu, and can serve as a viable answer to
Sharon, preventing moderate Likud voters from following
Sharon. They supported the Disengagement Plan and can give
the Likud a moderate image in order to win over center and
moderate right voters afraid of the type of hard-line right-
wing policies Netanyahu and Landau represent.
Both of them have rich experience. Shalom has headed high-
ranking government offices for years, including the Finance
Ministry and Foreign Ministry. He also served as deputy
minister of security. Shalom is a seasoned politician and a
traditionalist who would be capable of maintaining the
Likud's status.
But Mofaz is the Likud's best bet. He is a relatively gray
figure, lacking charisma, and not a particularly savvy
politician. But he is highly regarded in the area of
security, making him the Likud's ultimate reply to Amir
Peretz and Ariel Sharon. Sephardic and strong on security,
with experience, integrity and traditional values.
Mofaz' problem is winning the party primaries because he
lacks a sufficient number of foot soldiers. If nevertheless
he manages somehow to win the party chairmanship, he will
bring the political establishment its third big shock in
recent weeks.
This also explains why Sharon wants Mofaz with him even
though Mofaz will not bring campaign funding or air time.
Sharon has sweet dreams of Netanyahu heading the Likud, bad
dreams of Mofaz heading the Likud — and Shalom is
somewhere in between.
