With the chagim behind us the coalition negotiations
are gathering momentum in an effort to complete the formation
of the coalition and to set up the next government. Kadima
promised Labor they could be the first to join the coalition
and does plan to keep its word, but Kadima won't wait
forever.
Olmert and his allies realize that they need Labor in the
coalition to advance their security policy even though when
the issue comes up on the agenda Labor, along with Meretz,
will support the government whether they are in the coalition
or not — just as in the case of the Disengagement Plan
under the Sharon government. But Olmert does not want to rely
on outside support. Problems inside the Likud party led to
the disintegration of the Sharon government and some of its
predecessors, such as the Netanyahu and Barak governments.
Olmert wants to set up the kind of coalition that would
provide him backing from within the government's ranks rather
than having to seek it elsewhere.
Labor, well aware that Olmert needs them, is biding its time.
Politics at its best. Besides keeping their election promise
to raise the minimum wage, which has already been taken care
of more or less and will be implemented in phases, Labor is
seeking two central portfolios — the Finance Ministry
for Amir Peretz and the Education Ministry for Yuli Tamir
— but they know in the final analysis they will have to
settle for one or the other, not both. Though it has not been
announced officially, the word now is that Peretz will get
the Defense Ministry and Tamir the Education Ministry.
Sharon promised Uriel Reichman the education portfolio, but
when it became clear that he would not get it, Reichman
resigned even his Knesset seat to leave politics.
In any event Kadima is familiar with every political move in
the book and won't let Labor bide its time to eventually
press them against the wall. Olmert has plenty of options
without Labor and the most he can do is save portfolios for
them. If they want they'll come. If not they will have to
combat Kadima from the opposition bench.
Eight MKs Jostling for One Portfolio
One way or another Labor is waging a full-scale war over the
portfolios and who will determine the ministerial
appointments. No matter how many ministerial positions they
get, former ministers and others who consider themselves
worthy of a portfolio will have to give up their dream. There
are simply too many of them in Labor.
Before Pesach Amir Peretz said the ministers would be
selected based on the primary results and the MK's
experience. Even before Pesach it was evident that five Labor
people are guaranteed spots at the government's table: Amir
Peretz himself, Yuli Tamir (who is both very loyal and a
woman, and Labor needs a woman minister), Yitzhak Herzog and
Ophir Pines (who topped the primary results) and Binyamin Ben
Eliezer, the seasoned veteran. The word now is that Shalom
Simchon will get the Agriculture portfolio.
No fewer than seven other Labor MKs consider themselves
viable candidates for such a position: Ami Ayalon, Avishai
Braverman, Matan Vilnai, Eitan Cabel, Colette Avital, Ephraim
Sneh and Dani Yatom. Each of them has a reason why he should
get a job.
The only one who looks likely at this time is Ephraim Sneh, a
former general who already served in the Defense Ministry.
Since Peretz's credentials for running that ministry are
weak, he is expected to be appointed a deputy minister of
Defense to complement Peretz.
Several high-ranking Laborites want the Party Center draw up
the ministerial list rather than the party chairman. Based on
the Labor Constitution, 300 signatures of Party Center
members are needed to bring the issue for discussion. If the
Center winds up determining the ministerial list, anything
could happen. But if not the above predictions are probably
accurate, more or less.
