The main issue occupying Israel these days is the formation
of a government. Although not all the details are known and
some are still subject to change, the general outlines are
clear.
It will be a big, broad government, including Kadima, the
largest party, as well as Labor, the second largest party. In
addition it will probably include Shas, Yisrael Beiteinu,
United Torah Judaism and the Pensioners Party. All told that
would be 84 MKs, over two-thirds of the Knesset membership.
With such a large number in the government, any threats to
the coalition would have to come from within, if parties are
not satisfied.
The line that seems to be drawn between those in and those
out is political pragmatism. Kadima is a completely
opportunistic party drawn together from what had been
considered opposing ends of the political spectrum: senior
members of both Likud and Labor. As founded by Sharon, what
drew them together was a willingness to follow Sharon in
pursuing progress towards calm and stability without any
other preconceived notions as what it would look like, and
especially without any concern about reaching an agreement
with the Palestinians and what any possible agreement might
include.
It was Sharon's innovation to take big steps he thought
necessary to improve Israel's security without worrying too
much about political correctness. No one before him had
considered withdrawing without some sort of political
agreement with the Palestinians. Politically it certainly
makes no sense to give your adversary some of what he wants
without getting anything in return. Sharon made the argument
that the importance of security can override all normal
political rules. The problems, as is well known, were that
Sharon did not bother to convince the people that withdrawing
from Gaza would, in fact, improve security, and also that not
enough attention was devoted to the needs of those who were
withdrawn from their homes of 30 years.
Olmert promises to continue Sharon's policies. He has said
that he wants to conduct further withdrawals from Yehuda and
Shomron. It is not clear that this was Sharon's plan. In fact
many times the former prime minister said that he would not
make any further unilateral withdrawals — though Sharon
had been known to change his mind. Much will depend on what
happens inside of the Palestinian Authority over the next
months and years: even under the best circumstances it would
not be a stable government, and all the outside forces are
combining to stress the outlaw Hamas leadership by
withholding support. It is far from certain that Olmert will
want to make any further unilateral moves a year from now,
and even less likely that all of his coalition partners will
in fact support him if he does want to do so.
Olmert is a seasoned politician but not a very inspiring
person. It remains to be seen how capable a leader he is, and
how he will deal with real opposition.
One of the big issues for UTJ is to restore some of the
unfair cuts that were made in financial support for the
chareidi community. These were made as a political and
ideological statement by the now-defunct Shinui party which
was a senior partner in the previous coalition.
Cuts were made across a broad front: support for chareidi
education for all ages (which is still a separate budget item
and not part of the base like education for all other Israeli
children), support for poor chareidi families, and also the
universal child support payments (Bituach Leumi) that benefit
chareidi families because they tend to be large. Shas tried
to make progress on restoring the universal child support,
but it seems to have abandoned that effort after running into
strong opposition from all sides. They will be considered
successful if they can even prevent further scheduled
cuts.
The universal child support benefits are very visible and
draw strong opposition. They also benefit all sectors of the
population that have large families. Perhaps the wisest
approach is to concentrate on less prominent programs that
are important to the chareidi community like support for
education and housing subsidies. Overall the community can
probably do better if it concentrates on areas that do not
stimulate the hatred of those who oppose chareidi growth.
Very often the results are unexpected, especially when it
comes to Eretz Yisroel and Am Yisroel. The
politicians and military leaders have much less influence
than the secular think or imagine.
Our task is to improve ourselves in avodas Hashem.
That is the best guarantee of a good future.
