Weeks after it became obvious to many with the start of
hostilities in the North of Israel, Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert acknowledged that his Realignment plan in Yehuda and
Shomron is no longer a policy option.
Olmert told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense
Committee: "What I thought several months ago would be the
right thing to do on the Palestinian front has now
changed.
"I must assess reality, not because I made a mistake, but
because you must reassess priorities when they have changed,"
he said. "We have no intention of running away from the
Palestinian issue. We cannot afford to do so. We must deal
with the Palestinian issue, but will consider other ways of
doing so."
Both regions from which Israel withdrew unilaterally in
recent years — south Lebanon and the Gaza Strip —
were the scenes of continued threats from the Arab residents
as soon as the IDF left. Rather than beginning a momentum
that could lead to peace or at least stability, the pullouts
set the stage for more violence.
In both instances, the Arabs used their freedom from
immediate oversight to arm themselves for further and better
attacks. Rather than building a society that works towards
prosperity, as most Western societies do, the Palestinian and
Lebanese Hizbullah thrust their efforts at violence and
preparations for violence.
There is no reason to even hope that an Israeli withdrawal
from the West Bank would produce any other result there.
"The notion of trading territory for peace was successful in
two instances, Egypt and Jordan. It failed in two other
cases, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority," Shimon Peres
wrote in Britain's Guardian newspaper.
"The initiative to withdraw unilaterally from the West Bank
has lost its attraction in the eyes of the Israeli public due
to the aftereffects of withdrawal from the Gaza Strip," Peres
added. "I cannot envisage a situation today in which the
majority of Israelis will support such a withdrawal."
There was opposition to unilateral withdrawals from both the
Left and the Right. Both argued that the Arabs do not view
such actions as moves towards peace, but rather as a retreat
from violence, that validates and encourages further violence
by providing perceived evidence for its success.
The Left wanted only a negotiated withdrawal — but they
wanted a withdrawal, though in recent times they have not had
a proposal of how to achieve this.
The Right wanted things to stay as they are, with a firm hand
to suppress terror.
Just what Olmert plans to do now, with his centerpiece plan
shelved, remains in doubt. The most immediate option is to
adopt an economic platform, especially when it comes to areas
of northern Israel battered by Hizbullah rockets.
Analysts say the war cost Israel around $5.3 billion, and
there are the added hefty expenses of rehabilitating the
defense establishment and preparing it for the future.
Israel's military and intelligence services are widely seen
as having tackled Hizbullah poorly. With wars potentially
looming against Syria and a nuclear-armed Iran, Israelis want
to know all steps are being taken to protect them and to
prepare for future wars.
With his popularity sapped and Defense Minister Amir Peretz
facing challenges from within his Labor Party, Olmert must
also deal with the problems within his governing coalition
and the threats to his own political future.
That may mean reaching out to right-wing factions that could
potentially join the coalition, but there is little evidence
of any such moves taking place so far.
"We were prepared to enter into bilateral negotiations on the
basis of the road map, but to date Hamas has prevented the
Palestinian side from following through," Peres wrote.
"An alternative could take the form of a partnership
involving Israel, Jordan and the Palestinians, following an
economic route rather than a political one."
Olmert also issued a harsh threat to Syria, promising that
Israel would use more force in any war with Syria than it did
in the recent conflict in Lebanon. It was not clear if the
primary intended audience was the Syrian leadership or the
Israeli public, to show that Olmert can be tougher than he
was in Lebanon.
A Council of Jewish Communities in Judea, Samaria and the
Gaza Strip spokesperson was not thrilled by Olmert's reported
remarks. She said that the prime minister had made the
statement out of political motives, since what concerned him
was keeping his coalition together and not aggravating the
opposition. She said that she thought that Olmert would
revive his realignment plan in the near future.
