Relations between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his Defense
Minister Amir Peretz are very poor. In fact they are
nonexistent. They don't trust one another and if one of them
makes a remark the other automatically says exactly the
opposite. The tension between the two figures, whose
respective parties form the foundation of the coalition, is
running high and nobody seems to know how to solve the
problem.
But they have no choice, for the two men are dependent on one
another. Without Peretz, Olmert has no coalition and the last
thing Peretz wants at this point is to give up his post and
join the opposition. They can go on quarreling and creating
crises but at the end of the day they have to make peace and
go back to work. Until the next crisis.
The Olmert-Peretz partnership was impossible from the start.
Both figures like to take the credit and the two men vied
against one another for the Prime Minister's Office. Olmert
won, but Peretz was already thinking about the next election
campaign. With this in mind he demanded the defense portfolio
to build an image of a security man and a national-level
leader and to acquire experience in his area of perceived
weakness.
Olmert definitely does have long-range plans, too. One term
is not enough for him. He, too, will work to build up his
image and reputation during the course of this term to
position himself as the leading candidate in the next
elections.
At this point the only person who can stand in his way is
Amir Peretz and . . . Ehud Olmert himself, should he make
unwarranted mistakes.
The Likud is mired in knee-deep mud. Despite the illustrious
title of opposition chairman, Binyamin Netanyahu does not
appear to have any plans to build himself as a viable
alternative. With a grand total of barely 12 mandates he has
a long way to go before he can be considered a real
contender.
Amir Peretz was a flop in the elections. But in light of
Kadima's own dubious showing and the fact his party has seven
ministers in influential ministries he definitely presents an
alternative to Olmert should the PM falter.
This has been the source of the constant tension between the
two from the moment the government was set up and it will
continue as long as their partnership lasts. And there is no
solution to this hidden and open rivalry.
Recently political figures, including members of the
coalition parties, estimate the current government has a
lifespan of 12 to 18 months at most. These commentators and
political forecasters certainly have the right to state their
learned opinions, but Olmert does not give the impression he
intends to serve as prime minister for such a short period of
time. Nor will Peretz be satisfied with such a short stint as
defense minister. He likes the job. It gives him a sense of
importance, power and prestige and until he's made the most
of it he has no intentions of yielding his throne in the
Kiryah in Tel Aviv to make room for somebody else.
Olmert Outmaneuvers Peretz
Olmert has a lot more political experience than Peretz,
certainly ministerial experience, and he takes advantage of
his edge to strike out at his rival at every opportunity.
According to the law the Knesset must pass the 2006 budget
within one week, otherwise the government falls, the Knesset
gets disbanded and new elections have to be held, which none
of the parties want at this point in time.
Olmert knew he would have to obtain approval for the budget
in any case, with our without Peretz. So why not go ahead and
cut half a billion shekels from the defense budget without
even notifying Peretz in advance? Olmert also took full
advantage of the fact that during the election campaign
Peretz was the one calling for cuts in defense spending for
the sake of social spending. Olmert realized Peretz would
object to big cuts in his ministry's budget, but also
realized his objections would be impotent. After all how
could someone object to a move he himself called for from
every soapbox just two or three months ago?
