The Likud Party recently held a meeting to discuss the
proposal to hold a referendum on the disengagement plan and
decided to set up a team of Likud members to evaluate the
various aspects of the issue. During the meeting Prime
Minister Ariel Sharon, a long-time opponent of referendums,
repeated his opposition and said he would continue to object
even if the party decided to support a referendum.
Sharon has a long record of not honoring Likud decisions. If
he failed to honor the decisions by Likud voters and the
Likud Center, who is he to demand obedience from other Likud
members?
Nevertheless during the course of the meeting, in light of
the pressure on the issue of a referendum, Sharon agreed to
set up a committee, which was seen as the beginning of
capitulating to the idea of a referendum.
Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is applying the most
pressure. He has plenty of reason to favor a referendum--or
at least to appear as if he is in favor.
Like many others in the Likud, Netanyahu is afraid of a party
split. His aspiration is to one day head the Likud Party
again, not half a party. Now would be a poor time to hold
elections from his perspective and he believes only a
referendum would defer elections.
Netanyahu needs at least another year of quiet as Finance
Minister before he feels ready for elections. He holds that
the Israeli economy is getting back on track and beginning a
period of growth. (And experts say there is some evidence to
support this.) Thus he would like to see elections held in
another 12-18 months when he thinks the economy will have
completely pulled out of the recession.
He says elections now would cause budget delays and suppress
continued economic growth, and the financial markets, both in
Israel and abroad, would show a lack of faith in the Israeli
economy.
Thus Netanyahu wants to avoid this at all costs because a
failure as finance minister after his failure as prime
minister, would spell the end of his political career. He
would go down in history as a failure.
Although Netanyahu generally appears to be further to the
right than Sharon, the disengagement plan makes little
difference to him. Netanyahu is looking out for Number One.
If disengagement will help him he is in favor, if it will
harm him he is against.
Netanyahu would be very happy if Sharon solves problems for
him, leaving him to one day run a country without Gaza and
without terror on the southern front. If this vision doesn't
pan out he can always say he was never very enthusiastic over
the disengagement; if it does he can point to his votes in
favor in the government and in the Knesset.
In the Footsteps of Netanyahu and Barak
Sharon's main problem is the lack of a coalition--and the
problem appears to be getting worse. In fact Sharon seems to
be following in the footsteps of Barak and Netanyahu.
Three months ago Coalition Chairman Gidon Saar summoned the
Knesset press corps to proudly proclaim that the coalition
had not failed in a single vote and that the opposition had
not succeeded in passing even one item of legislation against
the coalition's stance. But times have changed.
Now Sharon's coalition is faltering in one vote after the
next, both in no-confidence votes and proposed legislation,
and everyone knows it could be doomed.
Fearing defeat following threats by several Likud rebels to
disappear from the vote, the Likud decided to boycott one of
the no-confidence motions recently. An official excuse was
given but the truth was that the coalition preferred to
appear to be boycotting due to a reluctance to break the
rules of the game.
Instead of losing, the coalition has boycotted votes, just as
Netanyahu and Barak did years ago. Without an absolute
majority of 61 MKs voting no confidence, the government does
not fall. Even 60 no-confidence votes versus 0 votes of
support would leave the government in place.
After all of the Likud rebels were persuaded to take part in
the vote, the Likud decided to call off its boycott. The
results were a tie, 54 supporters and 54 opponents. But two
days later the coalition lost a vote on an item of
legislation.
This is surprisingly similar to what Netanyahu and Barak did
during their final months. As they began to falter in the
votes they chose not to take part and meanwhile they lost one
vote after another on proposed legislation until eventually
the coalition disintegrated.
