Two weeks from now the Likud Center will convene and in all
probability will decide to advance the party primaries to
sometime in Cheshvan — or Kislev at the latest. Sharon
has already announced that he considers this an unambiguous
attempt to depose a prime minister by his own party—and
he's right. In fact his opponents are even acknowledging it
outright.
Recently Sharon summoned ministers and the Likud MKs who have
not sided with Netanyahu openly, asking them to use their
connections in the Likud Center to prevent such an
unprecedented occurrence, but really the current situation is
not unprecedented. Likud prime ministers have often been
contested by usurpers from within the party. Sharon himself
challenged Shamir while the latter was still in the Prime
Minister's office. David Levy did the same and Netanyahu vied
against Sharon in the Likud primaries three years ago, only
then Sharon was not so outspoken for a very simple reason:
back then Sharon was leading the polls.
Likud figures say that none of Sharon's arguments will help,
and if nothing unexpected comes up Likud voters will choose
Netanyahu whether the primaries take place at the beginning
of winter, the middle or even the end.
Well aware of where he stands in the Likud, Sharon is
carefully assessing possible alternatives. Sharon's main hope
is to remain in office until the end of the current term in
November 2006, the original election date, so he can go out
with his head held high rather than getting booted from his
positions as party chairman and prime minister.
Recently both Sharon and Olmert brought the battle against
Netanyahu down to the personal level, vying to see who could
lash out against him harder. Not criticism of his policy or
descriptions of how the Likud would look under his
leadership, or how many mandates the Likud stands to lose
under Netanyahu, but rather attacks on his character. By
attacking Netanyahu both men closed the door to receiving any
appointments should he win.
There was also talk of reaching an agreement in which
Netanyahu would help block the move to advance the primaries,
allowing Sharon to complete his term with dignity and then
hand the party leadership to Netanyahu on a silver platter.
But Netanyahu would be unlikely to adopt such an idea because
he wants to take over the Likud Party as soon as possible and
because he doesn't trust Sharon to step aside and go back to
his sheep at Sycamore Ranch. It wouldn't be Sharon's first
time at reneging on a commitment. After all he was the one
who said Netzarim and Tel Aviv are one and the same.
Remember?
Barak Steps Aside Gracefully to Make Room for . . .
Barak
Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak managed to turn the media
spotlight from the Likud to the flailing Labor Party with his
surprise announcement he is willing to pass up the party
chairmanship for the sake of Shimon Peres and his call to all
of the other contenders to stand behind Peres.
The carefully rehearsed move was designed to serve none other
than Ehud Barak who, like every other politician, is looking
out for number one.
Barak is well aware that not a single survey predicts that he
would win or even advance to the second round. His decision
to return to the political arena and vie for the Labor Party
chair and the prime minister's office, which he left in shame
four years ago, stems primarily from the example Netanyahu
set through his comeback. "If Bibi can do it, so can I,"
Barak told himself. He is driven by a combination of envy, an
inflated self-image and a strong desire to prove the country
was wrong and he was right.
To drop out of the race would not be a very respectable thing
for a dignified candidate to do and Barak certainly thinks of
himself as a dignified candidate. To see it through to the
bitter end and face defeat is also not a viable option since
that would be his political undoing. Not everyone is a Shimon
Peres who can lose time after time and still land on his
feet.
But by stepping aside Barak has everything to gain. Rather
than fleeing from the campaign the move is perceived as a
gracious gesture to unite the divided party around the elder
statesman. Barak slipped away at the last moment with minimal
damage to his reputation, creating an image of a man
concerned for the fate of his party during hard times.
Most of all Barak has not forgotten that Shimon Peres is now
82 years old. Barak's best option is to make Peres the head
of the Labor Party, even if he becomes prime minister for
three or four years. In the meantime Barak will get himself
elected to the Knesset and might even receive a ministerial
post. His plan is to bide his time, strengthen his hold
within the party, build his popularity and win back the
public's faith.
Just like Netanyahu.
