The Winter Session in the Knesset, which is expected to be
historical and decisive, opened Monday with a mild speech by
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. He made only brief mention of
the Disengagement Plan to avoid antagonizing the NRP, half of
which is still within the government. Instead he is
postponing the thrust of the battle for two weeks, when the
plan comes before the Knesset for a vote. Nonetheless, in a
purely symbolic act, the Knesset voted 53 to 44 against
adopting Sharon's statement, after the Labor Party decided to
withhold support until the plan itself is brought for
approval. A dozen Likud MKs who oppose disengagement and the
four National Religious Party MKs who are still in the
government did not participate in the vote.
The Likud tried to arrange the approval of resolutions that
would have been less significant, but Sharon insisted that
his statement be put to a vote. The vote was not directly
about the Disengagement Plan, but nonetheless Sharon's
internal opponents did not support him. A Sharon associate
said, "The Likud MKs who said all along that they support
Sharon but oppose disengagement proved that they cannot be
trusted."
Many observers are sure that Sharon and his coalition will
not make it through the Winter Session in one piece and that
elections sometime next summer are inevitable. For the past
several years elections have been held every two years, after
the government reached the end of the line in the middle of a
Winter Session. This is what happened in 1999, in 2001 and in
2003. And the moment of reckoning is not months down the
road, but just weeks away.
The schedule is packed. Just one week from next Monday (on
October 25-10 Cheshvan) the Prime Minister will present the
Disengagement Plan to the Knesset. Two days later which
Sharon will likely spend scampering behind the scenes to
garner as large a majority as possible, the plan will come to
a vote.
According to Sharon's calculations the plan will pass, and he
seems to be right. He is more-or-less guaranteed 21 votes
from the Labor Party, 6 from Meretz, 8 from Arab MKs and 15
from Shinui, bringing the total to 50. Pulling in another 11
votes from the Likud, which has 39 altogether, should be no
problem.
One week later Sharon plans to present another potential
bombshell: the Relocation-Compensation Bill. Another two
whole days will be devoted to deliberations on this matter
before its first reading, two days that will invariably be
tense and filled with drama in the Knesset and the entire
political system.
The very next day Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will
bring the 2005 Budget before the Knesset plenum for a first
reading. After the two deliberations over disengagement,
nobody can say how the budget vote will pan out, who will
vote in favor and who against, and who will try to topple the
government because of the disengagement. If the government
does not pass a budget by March, new elections are
automatic.
Sharon's Speech
"Within just the next few weeks this house will have to make
some very difficult decisions that are critical to the
security of Israel, to its prosperity and its future," began
Sharon. Differences of opinion are legitimate before a
decision is made, he said, but after a majority vote
everybody must unite around the outcome.
The Prime Minister went on to discuss how the government
cleaved to President Bush's Roadmap Plan and would have liked
to implement it, but because there was no partner on the
Palestinian side the Disengagement Plan was brought into
being. "That this plan is the subject of fierce public debate
[in Israel] is no secret," he said. "In the Knesset an open
discussion will be conducted on the plan the government
decided [to put forth]. There I will present in full all of
the considerations that led the government to initiate the
plan. Everyone will be able to examine all of the documents,
study the issue in depth, express his opinion and vote. This
is how a democratic administration operates."
Sharon also devoted a considerable portion of his speech to
the settlers. "I know how hard it is for a family to sever
itself from its way of life. These are people sent to the
Gaza Strip by Israeli governments. Some of them have been
there for 30 years. Each of them has built a home and a
family. Children have been born and the dead have been buried
there. I know and understand what they feel, how hard it is
to part from the house you built with your own two hands,
from the field you plowed, from the hothouse you tended, from
the tree you planted, from the garden you watered, from the
earth, from the landscape and from the memories. I feel sorry
for all those who refuse to understand this, those who cry
out for their removal, whose only desire is to see the
pictures of the Jewish settlers plucked from their land. In
contrast I feel their pain, which is deeper and more real
than we can imagine."
Turning his attention to security affairs he said the war
against terror would continue. On economic matters he
enumerated several successes, seemingly oblivious to the
increase in poverty. "Are we talking about the same country?"
MK Rabbi Moshe Gafni called out.
Interruptions were also heard from other benches. When Sharon
spoke about disengagement, protests were heard from the
Right. When he spoke about the war against terror and the
struggle against the Palestinians, objections were voiced by
the Arab MKs. And when he came to the subject of economic and
social affairs shouts were rained down on him from Labor,
UTJ, Shas and Am Echad MKs.
