The new coalition has been set up, but Prime Minister Ariel
Sharon's problems are far from over. On paper, all appears
splendid with 64 coalition members—40 from the Likud,
19 from Labor, 5 from UTJ — and another 5 potential
additions. The five waiting in the wing are three MKs from Am
Echad which is slated to merge with Labor, and two
independent MKs, Paritzky and Nudelman, who can be enlisted
ad hoc should the need arise.
Yet despite these impressive numbers Sharon's main problem in
the previous coalition remains the same: the rebels from his
own party who oppose the disengagement plan. 13 Likud MKs
signed a letter informing their UTJ colleagues they would not
support setting up a government with Labor because the
primary agenda would then be to carry out the disengagement
plan.
This letter created a great storm in the political arena,
particularly in the Likud. Sharon considered it a very grave
matter, warning the members of the renegade group they are
acting against the decisions of the Likud Convention and
would topple the Likud government. All 13 voted against the
government when it was approved on Monday.
The rebels stopped being intimidated by Sharon and his
threats long ago and are prepared to do whatever it takes to
torpedo the disengagement plan.
The new coalition is not going to have an easy time in the
day-to-day life at the Knesset. In the Knesset committees the
rebels will continue to cause trouble. Without them the
coalition will not have a majority. Sharon's next move is to
try to get Shas, which will give him a majority without
them.
Of the plethora of Knesset committees three are crucial for
any coalition: the Finance Committee, the House Committee and
the Constitutional Committee, where without a majority a
government cannot advance important legislative initiatives.
In these three committees the opposition and the rebels have
a majority and together they are in a position to sabotage
the coalition, blocking legislative initiatives, funding
transfers, etc.
An example of what the rebels, with the assistance of the
opposition, can accomplish was seen recently in the
Constitutional Committee, when approval could not be obtained
for several paragraphs of the evacuation-compensation bill,
despite support by Labor, Shinui and Yachad MKs. So what will
happen in issues Shinui and Yachad don't support? The
opposition will have an absolute majority.
In the Knesset plenum as well the coalition will not enjoy an
automatic majority. The settlers will apply heavy pressure on
the rebels not to assist the government, even in votes on
less important and even trivial issues in order to undermine
the government's stability as much as possible. Failures of
this sort will invariably make the headlines once again,
creating the impression the State of Israel lacks a stable
government and has to lean on the far left in the form of
Yachad.
Shas Next
This also explains why Sharon's next goal will be to bring
Shas into the coalition. Sharon is well aware if he wants a
stable government without having to rely on favors from the
opposition he will have to have Shas join the government. If
the peace process is revived following the election of Abu
Mazzan, Shas will draw closer to the coalition.
To this end even Sharon is willing to grant Shas MKs voting
freedom on the peace issue, i.e. they would be allowed to
vote against the government on every vote associated with the
disengagement plan, for even without them the disengagement
plan has a solid majority due to the backing of Yachad and
Shinui and the abstention of the Arab MKs.
The decision to bring Shas into the coalition appears to
depend on how the new coalition operates. If the coalition
runs smoothly and manages to overcome all of the obstacles,
Shas will be rejected or brought in on the cheap. But if the
coalition finds itself with daily problems, Shas' price tag
will increase and Sharon will have to pay.
Even with UTJ, while at the beginning of the coalition
negotiations Sharon demanded UTJ representatives commit to
support every vote on the disengagement plan, including the
evacuation-compensation law, in the end UTJ MKs were given
voting freedom on matters of national policy.
