Last week Ariel Sharon reached what every Prime Minister with
coalition trouble yearns for: a recess. For one month he
won't have to wheedle for votes or deal with rebellious MKs,
threats and no-confidence votes.
Though the coalition did not appear very viable at the
outset, throughout the long winter session the opposition
proved unable to post any real achievements. In a last-ditch
effort to post some accomplishment Shas submitted a no-
confidence motion. Knowing that at least 20 coalition MKs
would be absent from the vote, the opposition hoped to score
a public relations victory. Toppling the government, which
requires a majority of 61 MKs, was highly unlikely, to put it
mildly.
The coalition heads probably got little rest the night before
the no-confidence vote but Sharon may have lost more sleep
over other matters, for that night IDF helicopters were
stalking Sheik Ahmed Yassin. In the morning the Knesset woke
up to a whole new reality. Yassin was no more and Hamas was
[again] threatening revenge.
The coalition quickly recognized the opportunity and asked
Shas to rescind its no-confidence motion as a show of support
for the government following the daring assassination. Shas
wavered, but eventually acceded to the request.
According to some observers Sharon is trying to thaw
relations with Shas and Shas is responding. Sharon knows the
withdrawal of the NRP and HaIchud HaLeumi could be imminent,
and when the time comes he'll have to make changes in the
coalition. The Labor Party is the most obvious choice but
Shas is also a possibility, as unrealistic as it may seem to
seat Shas and Shinui in the same coalition. The official
reason for the recent meeting between Sharon and Party
Chairman Eli Yishai was to brief Shas on the disengagement
plan, but clearly Sharon had other intentions as well. His
son Omri Sharon, considered the most powerful figure in the
Likud and the political apparatus--certainly in the area of
political appointments--met with Yishai to ascertain how to
satisfy Shas' yearning for appointments to the religious
councils.
Sharon is a full-time politician. Everything he does is
calculated. He may be warming up to Shas just to lower
Labor's demands, but based on the withdrawal of the no-
confidence motion and efforts to rein in its MKs' more
acerbic attacks against Sharon and the government, Shas seems
to enjoy being wooed. If Sharon is indicted, all bets are
off.
heading
At a recent press conference called by Gidon Saar the
coalition chairman said bringing the Labor Party into the
coalition would be a big mistake. Resuscitating the dying
party would place the key to setting the date for the next
elections in the palm of the leading opposition party's hand.
Based on simple math he's right.
Asked again and again what his preference would be in the
event of an NRP and HaIchud HaLeumi withdrawal, Saar refused
to comment. All he would say is that any alternative would be
better. He said setting up a minority government was entirely
out of the question, nor was he willing to consider the
possibility of early elections. So what remains other than
Shas and perhaps UTJ as well?
Asked about the possibility of bringing Shas--which can
accommodate the disengagement plan--into the coalition to
replace the NRP and HaIchud HaLeumi, Saar avoided a direct
reply. (From a numerical standpoint the coalition would lose
only two MKs.) The Coalition Chairman revealed only that he
is maintaining good relations with Shas and United Torah
Jewry MKs, certainly as former partners. Though he did not
come out and say the words "as future partners," all those
present felt they were on the tip of his tongue.
Some claimed other motivations lay behind the press
conference. They held Saar opposes the disengagement plan and
rejecting the Labor Party is his way of trying to torpedo
Sharon's plan, or at least other political moves behind the
disengagement.
