Prime minister Ariel Sharon has a full head of steam as he
advances steadily -- and none too slowly -- towards approval
of his disengagement plan.
Last week he got a strong endorsement of his plan from US
President George Bush on a short trip to Washington. In a
joint press conference in which both Sharon and Bush were
beaming, the US President called the plan "brave and
courageous."
In a letter to Sharon, Bush said "new realities on the
ground" -- referring to large concentrations of residents
such as Maaleh Adumim and Ariel -- would have to be taken
into consideration during final status negotiations, that
Israel would not have to fully withdraw to the Green Line,
and that Palestinian refugees would return to the Palestinian
state, not Israel. Bush also wrote that the U.S. was still
committed to the road map and would do "its utmost" to
prevent any other political plan from being imposed on
Israel. The letter backs Israel's right to self-defense and
combat terror from territories it evacuates.
It was the first time that there was any official US
recognition that Israel does not have to go back all the way
to the pre-1967 lines, as it is entitled to under
international law. However, informally even the Clinton plans
assumed that Israel would retain major population centers
close to the original Green Line.
The US commitments resoundingly answered the condition that
Finance Minister Netanyahu placed on his support for the
plan, namely, that Israel receive something in return for its
actions. Instead of relying on the Palestinians to give a
piece of peace for getting back land, Sharon got American
statements, which are presumably more substantive than those
of Yasser Arafat.
Returning to Israel with the very visible support from
America, the Israeli prime minister could soon count on a
comfortable majority in the Cabinet to approve the plan as
Finance Minister Netanyahu and Education Minister Livnat
announced their support. Some time later, Foreign Minister
Shalom bowed to the inevitable and also fell in line.
A vote of the 200,000 registered members of the Likud party
about the plan is now scheduled for May 2, less than two
weeks. With the momentum he has been gathering and the
support of all senior Likud politicians, it is likely that
the vote will not be close and that Sharon's plan will be
approved by a significant majority.
That in turn will build up a considerable public momentum
behind the plan. The Right-wing politicians from the National
Religious Party and Yisrael Beiteinu have muted their early
shrill opposition. Several "red lines" they set for resigning
from the government have been crossed and they are still
there. They may yet "find" a way to stay in the government
even as the settlements are dismantled. The National
Religious Party hardly even protests the latest anti-
religious outrages of Shinui.
The strong and relatively broad support will make it more
difficult than otherwise for the settlers being evacuated to
mount too strong an opposition to their move. The plan is
likely to take on an air of inevitability.
At this time it is difficult to foresee how things will be
after the plan. It will likely force everyone -- including
the Americans, the Europeans, the Palestinians and many in
Israel -- to rethink their positions in the light of new
realities, and the results cannot be known in advance.
Meanwhile the whole world is waiting to see signs in coming
weeks that Israel will live up to the prime minister's
commitment to pull out of the Gaza Strip and a small portion
of the West Bank.
The U.S. deputy secretary of state, Richard Armitage, is in
the Middle East this week, explaining that last week's deal
only enhances Bush's vision of a Palestinian state as the
outcome of negotiations. But Washington certainly wants to
see concrete Israeli actions soon.
A letter to US National Security Chief Condoleeza Rice from
Dov Weisglass, Sharon's bureau chief, contains a list of
outposts to be dismantled within the next month. The list
includes 28 outposts and about 240 settlers. Israeli
officials have also promised to ease restrictions on
Palestinians' movement.
Dov Weisglass also sent a letter to Bush, and some issues of
his wording must be ironed out. For one, he referred to
"restrictions on settlement growth" which Americans see as a
freeze, but Israeli officials plan to build within
settlements that are to remain with Israel.
Sharon has sympathy for Bush's political needs in the light
of what is likely to be a close election in November. His
remarks at the White House press conference obviously had
that in mind: "In all these years, I have never met a leader
as committed as you are, Mr. President, to the struggle for
freedom and the need to confront terrorism wherever it
exists," Sharon said at the press conference.
It remains unclear who will take over in Gaza after Israel
pulls out, but sources say that it is increasingly likely
that it will be Mohammed Dahlan, the former Palestinian
Authority minister of internal security. With the elimination
of Hamas' leadership leaving a potential political vacuum in
the Gaza Strip, Dahlan, a pragmatist, is a natural candidate
to fill it.
Dahlan has been one of the few Palestinian leaders to speak
out in favor of Israel's disengagement plan, or at least the
Gaza portion of it, though he praised it as vindication of
the Palestinian terrorist strategy.
In a recent interview with Toronto's Globe and Mail
newspaper, Dahlan said that a reformed, liberated Gaza Strip
could serve as a model for a future Palestinian
administration. He dismissed suggestions that the Palestinian
Authority is threatened by Hamas and said the Palestinian
Authority would have no problem reasserting its control over
a liberated Gaza Strip.
At the same time, the Palestinian Authority has been
negotiating with Hamas and Islamic Jihad, another terrorist
group, on understandings for the post-withdrawal period.
New Hamas leader Rantissi's removal from the scene by Israel
in a rocket attack may make dialogue between Hamas and the
Palestinian Authority easier. Yasser Arafat's people in Gaza
viewed Rantissi as a constant troublemaker. After Israel
killed Hamas founder Sheik Ahmed Yassin less than a month
ago, Arafat reportedly said, "Sheik Yassin was a serious and
balanced leader, but this is not the case with Rantissi."
The Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip will decrease the
number of terror attacks and restrain Palestinian terror
organizations in the West Bank as well, the Director of
Military Intelligence, Major General Aharon Ze'evi, said. He
explained that the recent assassinations of Hamas leaders
Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantissi had caused "shock and
anarchy" in the organization, and led it to seek assistance
from Iran and Hizbullah, a sign of acute distress.
Palestinian newspapers have compared Bush's declaration of
support for Israel's disengagement plan to the 1917 Balfour
Declaration. Bush's statement on April 15, which demonstrated
that the United States accepts permanent Israeli settlement
in parts of the West Bank, will be marked as yet another
"notorious date" in the history of the Palestinian national
tragedy, Palestinian newspapers said.
The Palestinians also will try to use next month's likely
Arab summit in Cairo to form a united front against Bush.
