Shin Bet head Avi Dichter reported to the Cabinet on Sunday
that some 70 percent of all suicide attacks have been foiled
since January 2003. Since January 2004 the success rate has
reached 77 percent (be'eizer Hashem). In absolute
terms, the security services foiled 84 suicide attacks since
January, 2003, but 36 bombers succeeded in blowing themselves
up.
Dichter also summarized the effects of almost four years of
Palestinian terror, but there were different ways of looking
at the numbers.
The Jerusalem Post reported that the number of Israeli
civilians killed in terror attacks in the last four years is
nearly equal the number killed by terrorists in the preceding
53. From November 29, 1947 (when the UN voted for Jewish
statehood), until September 2000, some 755 Israelis were
murdered in terror actions here or abroad. Some 674 Israeli
civilians murdered since September 2000.
Ha'aretz focused on the total casualties (including
deaths and injuries), which were much higher and dramatic,
since the start of the intifadah. Over the last four years
Israel has suffered 11,356 casualties, compared to 4,319
terror-related casualties between November 1947 and 2000.
However it was not clear how this was counted. According to
the IDF, there were 5,222 casualties in the same period.
Interestingly, the IDF no longer breaks down the casualties
according to location as it has in the past, but it does
report the total attacks according to location. According to
the IDF, 57 percent of all the attacks in the past four years
were in Gaza, 39 percent were in Yehuda and Shomron, and 4
percent were in what the IDF calls the Home Front. The
casualties are not distributed in the same way since the Home
Front attacks are typically much more deadly than the
others.
Certainly, the tragedy is no different where a Jew or any
innocent person is murdered or which Jew is murdered, but it
does make a difference in living and working and worrying
about future attacks. Relatively few attacks have taken place
on the Home Front.
Dichter also said that in 2004, 22 Israelis were murdered in
Hizbullah directed operations carried out by the Tanzim-
Fatah faction which is officially under the control of Yasser
Arafat.
Dichter reported that there has been a substantial increase
in the use of women and children under 18 to carry out
attacks recently. In 2001 women and children took part in 2.7
percent of the attacks, while in 2004 they were part of about
7.8 percent of the attacks.
This rise reflects both the difficulty the Palestinians are
having in successfully carrying out attacks involving men,
and also that the Palestinians are increasingly turning to
"weaker and more impressionable" parts of the population for
recruits. Dichter also said that 17 percent of all Israelis
murdered were in attacks involving east Jerusalem Arabs. In
the first seven months of this year, 32 Israeli Arabs or East
Jerusalem residents were involved in terrorism. In 2002, 51
Israeli Arabs were involved.
Israel has had wide success in stopping suicide attacks,
according to Dichter, but it is still unable to reduce the
motivation the terrorists have to carry them out. He said
that the number of terror warnings remains steady at about 50
a day. Attacks continue all the time, mostly in Gaza.
Qassam rockets are being used increasingly. Dichter said that
in 2004 alone the Palestinians fired 168 Qassam rockets, or
40 percent of all the Qassams fired since they were first
used in 2001.
Some 30 percent of the rockets fired this year were fired
since the IDF moved in Beit Hanoun following the killing of
two people by a Qassam in Sderot on June 29. The IDF move was
in response to the firing, and was taken to stop the Qassam
attacks. Dichter said that the security establishment has not
concluded whether the increased attacks mean that the IDF
action in Beit Hanoun failed, or whether it just shows how
much worse the situation would have been had the IDF not
moved into Beit Hanoun.
Several of the ministers complained that Dichter's report
contained not enough new information. Dichter responded that
he cannot give them too much information, because it will
certainly be leaked to the media. The cabinet receives
exactly the same information as the security cabinet and the
Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, because these
two bodies are also full of leaks. The only body to which he
does give classified information is the Foreign Affairs
Committee's subcommittee on the secret services, since
members of that committee do not leak his briefings.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon backed Dichter, telling the
ministers that they know well that everything leaks from
cabinet sessions.
On another issue, Sharon, in response to a question from
Welfare Minister Zevulun Orlev, said that Israel has not yet
agreed to allow Palestinian policemen to carry arms. He said
that the request will be examined on a case-by-case basis and
will not be a general permit. The matter will be brought to
the cabinet for discussion and approval when the exact terms
are decided, he said. Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz added that
the permit will only be for handguns, not rifles.
