There was a flurry activity of the diplomatic sort known as
"confidence building" in Lebanon this week, as a German
mediator was allowed to visit Elchanan Tannenbaum, as Israeli
businessman who was captured by Hizbullah nearly three years
ago. On Monday, Israel turned over to the International Red
Cross (ICRC) the bodies of two Hizbullah fighters who
transferred them to Lebanon.
The senior German official, who oversees intelligence affairs
for German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, was recently
appointed as mediator. On his return from Beirut he met in
Germany with Major General (res.) Ilan Biran, Israel's
coordinator for prisoners and MIAs, and gave him a report on
his visit to Tannenbaum. The mediator said Tannenbaum was in
"reasonable" condition.
Based on the visit and information from the mediator, Israel
decided to transfer to Lebanon the bodies of two of the
Hizbullah's members.
Defense establishment sources expressed optimism about
bringing the issue of all the Israelis being held by
Hizbullah to a close in the coming months. Security sources
said that the moves are also in anticipation of receiving
information from Hizbullah on the fate of three IDF soldiers
also kidnapped around the same time. They have been declared
dead by the IDF with their place of burial unknown.
Lebanese sources said that in return for the bodies,
Hizbullah handed over information concerning all four
Israelis. A Hizbullah official said that other steps would
follow soon.
Hizbullah Secretary-General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah also said
that the return of the bodies was part of a larger move. On
Saturday night, Nasrallah said he hoped the organization
would soon be able to bring home Hizbullah prisoners being
held in Israel.
Of the two bodies handed over to Hizbullah, one killed
himself in a suicide attack against an Israeli military
convoy in December, 1999. The second was killed in clashes
with Israeli troops in November, 1998.
Hizbullah hopes that the return of the bodies is the first
step toward the return of 16 live Lebanese prisoners held in
Israel, including Sheikh Abd al Karim Obeid, Hizbullah's
former leader in south Lebanon who was abducted by IDF troops
in 1989, and Mustafa Dirani another terrorist leader. Those
last two were abducted by Israel in efforts to determine the
fate of missing Israel Air Force navigator Ron Arad who was
captured after ejecting from his plane over Lebanon in
1986.
Israel is now hoping to secure the return of Elhanan
Tannenbaum and either the persons or the bodies of St.-Sgts.
Benny Avraham, Omar Sawayid, and Adi Avitan who were wounded
and captured by Hizbullah in the fall of 2000.
For the families of the hostages, the recent activity has
provided a ray of hope that an end to their ordeal might be
in sight.
Renewed negotiations over a prisoner swap reportedly began in
earnest some three weeks ago between Maj.-Gen. (res) Ilan
Biran and a senior Hizbullah official, through the auspices
of a German team headed by Ernest Uhrlau, coordinator of the
Federal Intelligence Service and a member of the Chancellor's
Office.
Negotiations on the release of prisoners is one of the most
complicated diplomatic transactions, especially with
Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah who is a wily
and sophisticated negotiator.
Observers say that Hizbullah is under pressure and that is
the reason for the recent progress. American has listed
Hizbullah as a terrorist organization. Syria is restraining
them under American pressure. The families of the Lebanese
prisoners held by Israel are also pressuring Hizbullah to
show results.
Nasrallah needs an achievement. Despite all of Hizbullah's
moves, the arrogant announcements and the provocations
against Israel, Nasrallah has been unable to bring any
prisoners home. Returning the two bodies of Hizbullah men is
something, but the organization may want more than that --
and soon.
Until recently Nasrallah made unrealistic demands. While
refusing to provide concrete information on the abducted
Israelis' condition -- usually the understood procedure is
that the blackmailers provide assurance that the people are
alive -- Nasrallah raised far-reaching demands like the mass
release of Palestinian prisoners. Israel could not respond to
that. Now that other possibilities are being discussed,
progress can be made.
Most analysts assume that Israel will try to reach a
comprehensive deal that would solve all the open issues (the
soldiers, Tannenbaum and information about Arad), but it is
not yet clear whether Hizbullah is ready to provide this.
