The 2003 State budget is scheduled to come up for its first
vote on Wednesday. Labor, one of the major partners in the
government, is threatening to withhold support. If they do
not vote for the budget, Prime Minister Sharon has said that
he will throw them out of the government.
Everyone agrees that the current unity government is the best
thing for the State. It presents the strongest possible face
to the world, at a time when strength is very much needed to
withstand the pressures. In any case, elections are scheduled
for next November, but they may be held as early as 90 days
from whenever it is decided to hold elections.
Most observers expect a unity government to emerge after
elections, whenever they are held. The question is who will
lead it and who will populate it. Prime Minister Sharon is
being challenged by Binyamin Netanyahu for leadership of the
Likud part, currently the largest in Israel. Defense Minister
Binyamin Ben-Eliezer is being challenged for leadership of
the Labor Part by Haifa Mayor Amram Mitzna and by MK Chaim
Ramon. Both challenges are very serious, though Ben-Eliezer's
position is the less secure of the two.
Most observers expect that Likud will lead the next
government. Likud is expected to gain seats and Labor to lose
seats. Voting will return to the old system where there will
be only one vote for a party and the leading party will have
to form a government.
Sharon is expected to follow through on his threat to dismiss
the Labor Party from the government if it does not support
the budget. From some time now, analysts expected Ben-Eliezer
to lead his party out of the government over an economic
issue. Perhaps that time has arrived. It is easier to lead an
election campaign as a member of the opposition, rather than
a part of a government that you do not control.
Sharon is expected to be able to pass the budget on Wednesday
perhaps with the votes of Yisrael Beiteinu, which remains
outside the government but has promised to support the
budget. Sharon will then try to form a narrow government. If
he is successful, then elections will be later. If he is not
successful, elections could come as soon as February.
Possible replacements for the outgoing Labor ministers were
already being discussed.
Recently retired chief of General Staff Shaul Mofaz is
Sharon's top candidate to replace Labor Party chairman
Binyamin Ben-Eliezer as defense minister. When asked in the
Knesset about Mofaz, Sharon said the appointment would be a
"good idea." He has not yet contacted Mofaz.
Mofaz, who retired in July, decided to forgo several months
of paid leave at the end of his tenure that he was entitled
to. He must stay out of politics for several months after
ending his army service, and if he waited until the end of
the leave, it would be too late for the next elections. The
speculation is that he intends to join the Likud.
Sharon is said to be inclined to keep the Foreign Affairs
portfolio for himself, to personally oversee relations with
the US and handle any potential contacts with the Palestinian
Authority.
Finance Minister Silvan Shalom is said to be interested in a
promotion, and Minister-without-Portfolio Dan Meridor signed
a deal with Sharon last year that guaranteed him a promotion
when a top portfolio becomes available.
Ministers-without-Portfolio Dan Naveh and Tzipi Livni and
Regional Cooperation Minister Roni Milo are also likely to be
promoted.
It was said that MK Yisrael Katz, campaign chief for Sharon's
rival, former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, may be
considered for the Agriculture portfolio he covets.
Sharon accused Labor ministers of putting internal political
considerations ahead of the economic well-being of the nation
at a Likud faction meeting.
"Giving in to Labor's demands would crash the economy, and
I'm simply not going to let that happen," Sharon said. "The
country does not need elections now, but if Labor forces
early elections due to its irresponsible behavior and
internal politics, [the Likud] is ready for elections."
Ben-Eliezer countered that Sharon's own political
considerations are forcing him not to compromise. However,
most economics experts say that it is very important for
Israel's economy that the proposed budget, that includes
painful spending cuts, be passed soon.
Foreign Minister Shimon Peres said the national-unity
government is good for the state, but he accepts that it is
nearing its end.
So far, neither MK Avigdor Lieberman's National Union-Yisrael
Beiteinu faction of seven nor MK David Levy's faction of two
is willing to join the 55 MKs who would be left in the
coalition after Labor's departure.
"This government has failed at providing economic stability
and stopping the war, and governments that fail need to go
home," said Lieberman, who filed a no-confidence motion in
the Knesset.
Sharon met with the two Meimad MKs in an effort to convince
them to support the budget and remain in the government. But
even with Meimad, Sharon will still need four more MKs to
form a narrow government.
