The wishful thinking of the politicians and the press proved
short-lived, as the polls released on Monday showed the Likud
rising sharply from its lows of late last week and beginning
to "recover" its commanding lead. Labor lost all its minor
gains and even fell lower.
After the media storm that broke out last week when someone
illegally leaked word of an investigation into some of prime
minister Sharon's financial dealings, the weekend polls
showed a sharp drop in Likud support. In the new figures,
compiled after Sharon spoke to the press in response to the
reports and was cut off in mid-sentence, this has been
reversed.
A Dahaf Institute poll published Monday predicted 32 to 33
seats for the Likud and only 20 for Labor. On Friday, the
same company had forecast 28 for Likud and 21 to 22 for
Labor. A New Wave poll had similar results, with Likud
winning 32 seats compared to last week's 30, and Labor
falling from 22 mandates to 20. Both polls had a 4.5 percent
margin of error.
An internal Likud poll gave the party 33 to 34 seats, and
Labor only 18 to 19. Labor said its internal polls give it
significantly more support but agreed that the Likud's
support rose.
As Evelyn Gordon wrote in the Jerusalem Post, "When a
prime minister up for reelection is being investigated by the
police, that is a matter of clear public interest. Thus the
media's efforts to give the public as much information as
possible about Sharon's $1.5 million loan from a South
African friend are right and proper (government officials are
forbidden to take foreign loans). What is not proper,
however, is the smear campaign that has accompanied the news
reports." She suggested that if Sharon's remarks were
improper, the impartial thing to do would have been to let
him finish and then grant Mitzna equal time to reply. It is
interesting and important to hear Sharon's version of
events.
Sharon's response to the story was that it was only an
innocent loan from an old army buddy and that the whole story
was illegally leaked by political rivals intent on "stealing"
the election because the country's legal establishment and
the media are out to get him. This analysis is probably not
far from what large parts of the population suspected anyway
and it was certainly reinforced when he was cut off by the
head of the Central Elections Committee in mid-sentence.
Though the investigation is real and proper, since loans
might indicate something illegal, the media have provided no
scenario that suggests anything improper. Though they use the
word "bribery" in their reports, they do not show any object
of bribery. Sharon used the money as collateral for a bank
loan meaning that he paid 3 percent on the private loan plus
market rate on his loan from Israel Discount Bank. The result
is that he paid 3 percent over the market rate for the money.
That does not have the usual structure of a bribe.
Moreover, Cyril Kern, the South African businessman who made
the loan, has no business interests in Israel. Not only is
there no evidence that Sharon gave Kern anything in return
for the loan, no one has even been able to point to anything
that he could have given. The investigation was at such an
early stage that it had no real information yet.
The new poll numbers have again put Labor on the defensive.
For a week they were focused on attacking Sharon, but now
they are back to trying to attack all sides at once. On
Tuesday Labor leader Amram Mitzna reemphasized his earlier
commitment not to sit in a unity government with Sharon. This
tactic is designed to draw votes from Meretz and the Arab
parties, both of whom are not candidates for any Sharon- led
government.
This position has been somewhat problematic for Mitzna since
it is well-known that many prominent Labor figures do favor a
unity government. Meretz leader Yossi Sarid analyzed the
Labor declaration publicly by explaining that since Mitzna is
now competing mainly for Meretz votes instead the more
centrist voters who vote Likud, it shows that he has given up
on winning the election. Sarid also opined that Mitzna's
declarations are "irrelevant" because the rest of the Labor
leadership, primarily Ben-Eliezer but also Peres and Itzik,
will push to join a unity government. Mitzna will "not be
able to single-handedly resist the pressure," he predicted --
self-servingly since he hopes to capture the votes of those
who favor not joining Sharon.
Another tactic Labor used when it tried to appeal to Likud
voters was to criticize Sharon for not building the security
fence faster. But this approach assumes that voters will feel
more secure with Mitzna who has said he would unilaterally
uproot Israeli settlements from the West Bank and Gaza Strip
within a year if he can't strike a deal first with the
Palestinians, and that he would talk with Arafat without
preconditions.
"Labor's decision not to sit in national-unity government
proves that Mitzna is disconnected from the nation that wants
a national-unity government even today," Likud campaign
manager Leor Horev said. "Labor fell in the polls because of
its own arrogance. Its direct attacks against the prime
minister had a boomerang effect. In the next two weeks, Labor
will have to fight Shinui to avoid becoming the third-largest
party."
Horev thought that the decision of the chairman of the
Central Elections Committee, Supreme Court Justice Mishael
Cheshin, to pull the plug on Sharon's press conference last
Thursday also boosted the Likud in the polls.
The head of the Likud campaign, Jerusalem Mayor Ehud Olmert,
speaking in the Likud's election messages on Monday night,
criticized Cheshin's decision and Labor for its attacks on
Sharon. The Likud message also showed ordinary citizens on
the street decrying Cheshin for having the "chutzpah" to pull
the plug on the prime minister.
Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat called publicly
for terrorist groups to stop killing Israel civilians until
after the elections. It is not clear if he was sincere or
even if so, how much weight his call has. Arafat's ability
and desire to control terrorism is a matter of debate. His
own Fatah Party claimed responsibility for a Jan. 5 double
suicide bombing in Tel Aviv that killed 23 people. This past
Sunday, two more Israelis were killed in attacks, one
civilian on a farming community in the Galil within the Green
Line, and one soldier in the Negev near the Egyptian
border.
At the weekly Cabinet session on Sunday, the Prime Minister
said that for the PA Chairman, the murder of Israelis -- in
addition to being a constant and permanent goal -- is a
political consideration. "Before the elections, it is OK to
commit murder. Close to the election date, it's better not
to. After the elections, it's OK to continue. Here, we
clearly see Yasser Arafat's true face, which is so well known
to us."
Prime Minister Sharon added that such remarks underscore what
Israel has maintained for the past two years: that Yasser
Arafat has established, is responsible for and leads a
coalition of terror, which he can leash or unleash and use as
he pleases. The Prime Minister asserted that one cannot
negotiate with such a man and added that any attempt to do so
will only harm our ability to achieve security and peace in
this land. All those who aspire to peace between peoples must
understand that Yasser Arafat is an obstacle to peace who
must leave the political stage.
Since taking office in March 2001, Sharon has refused all
contact with Arafat and has convinced the Bush administration
that Arafat must be replaced for Israeli-Palestinian peace to
have a chance.
