The United States is about to abandon its relatively detached
attitude to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians
and step up its involvement according to a report in
Ha'aretz and other publications including the New
York Times.
The appearance of several parallel reports indicated that the
story had its source with U.S. officials desiring to prepare
the ground in the press for their diplomatic initiative.
Events in Afghanistan and elsewhere may, of course, affect
the American actions especially since the U.S. government
does not seem to have very deep or well-thought-out plans for
most of its actions.
This change follows U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's
meetings with Palestinian Chairman Yasser Arafat and with
Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, a U.S. Administration source
said.
Washington will apparently begin trying to implement the
moribund Tenet cease-fire agreement and the Mitchell Report
recommendations before launching the next stage of its world
military campaign against more terrorist groups and possibly
against the regimes that support them.
The Americans have outlined the contours of their new
initiative on the Middle East, coming out in favor of a
Palestinian state on condition that violence ends.
Their actions coincide with efforts to persuade Muslim and
Arab states to lend their support for a second stage of the
American war on terrorism, if the latest successes against
the Taliban in Afghanistan continue.
According to Ha'aretz, Jerusalem sources say the Bush
administration is adopting a "carrot and stick" approach to
Arafat: continuing to pressure him to enforce a cease-fire
and clamp down on violence, while holding out the "diplomatic
vision" of a Palestinian state.
Arafat apparently promised Powell at their Sunday meeting
that he would move along the lines of the Tenet plan and the
Mitchell Report.
In his nine months in office Bush has consistently refused to
meet Arafat, but Powell said on Sunday the president would
meet the Palestinian leader as progress is made. Powell also
said Bush's use of "Palestine" in his speech before the UN
General Assembly -- a forum which gave the declaration
special resonance -- was deliberate. Powell described it as
"a powerful signal" and, he said, no other Republican
president of the U.S. has gone so far.
The newspaper report says that both Israel and Palestinian
officials are doing their best to obtain details of the
political principles which Powell is planning to flesh out in
an upcoming speech. The Secretary of State is expected to
make the principles public next week. Sources said that
Israel will receive an advance copy of the principles.
The administration is being guided by its desire to remove
the Israel-Palestinian conflict as in irritant in its
relations with the various other Arab regimes, and the Tenet
and Mitchell plans are the only possibilities for doing so at
the moment, sources in Israel say.
The Americans are not trying to achieve a full peace at this
stage, but rather just some quiet, so their efforts against
world terror will not be hampered. The initiative is an
obvious effort to prevent cracks in the coalition and to
placate "moderate" Arab voices, particularly those of Egypt
and Saudi Arabia.
In Jerusalem, the prime minister's office and the foreign
ministry are working in tandem to ensure that Israeli
interests are integrated into the American initiative.
According to Ha'aretz, Washington is unlikely to come
out with a plan that will be a substantive change in
Republican administration thinking. The Americans have
basically accepted Israel's view that it cannot negotiate
under fire, there can be no permanent agreement at present,
and no forced solutions. Sources do not expect that American
pressure will be brought to bear on Israel to depart from
these principles.
Instead the Americans are expected to draw an outline for
"Palestine" -- as it is now known since Bush's speech -- that
is far more generous than that envisaged by Prime Minister
Ariel Sharon. There would be more land, more significant
territorial contiguity, and all the outward trappings of a
state.
This would be the quid pro quo for Palestinian acquiescence
in postponing the complicated issues of Jerusalem and the
refugees until a later date.
If indeed the Americans succeed in getting the Palestinians
to toe the line, the latter will benefit from American
economic aid and other assistance. As the initiative
progresses and the violence decreases, Bush will meet Arafat,
as Powell has promised.
The problem is that American policy-makers do not seem to
appreciate that the "moderate" Arab regimes are not
particularly interested in temporary quiet in Israel, but do
want America to pressure Israel to make concessions. They
have the ability to block any agreement, overtly or covertly,
and they may do so unless they are convinced that this is
really the best they can do for now.
