Almost everyone expects a contest for the office of prime
minister between Ehud Barak and Binyamin Netanyahu, but it
remains unclear whether Israelis should prepare for special
direct elections for prime minister in 60 days (perhaps even
without Netanyahu) or, following the passing of the bill
next week dissolving the Knesset, for general elections in
90 days or sometime in May (almost certainly with
Netanyahu).
The Likud Central Committee was scheduled to meet Tuesday
night at the party's headquarters in Tel Aviv to agree on
the rules for the internal contest for the leadership of the
movement between Netanyahu and the current Likud chairman,
MK Ariel Sharon. The only other possible contender is MK
Silvan Shalom, who has not yet announced his intentions.
Sharon would like to see party primaries held next Monday,
before a decision is reached in the Knesset on whether
Netanyahu will be able to run for prime minister.
Netanyahu's supporters want the primaries to be held on
December 19, after the Knesset decides on whether to
dissolve itself or alter the Basic Law to allow a nonmember
of Knesset to run. Either possibility would allow Netanyahu
to run for prime minister.
Sources close to Netanyahu say that he may not run just for
prime minister if the Knesset does not vote in favor of its
own dissolution, since Netanyahu would like to see a Knesset
more weighted towards the right than the current one. This
has been one of the major arguments in favor of holding
general Knesset elections: if Barak wins a special prime
ministerial election he would be stuck with the same
deadlocked Knesset, and any opponent would probably also be
equally hard-pressed to work with the Knesset. It makes more
sense to elect both the prime minister and the Knesset he
must work with, at the same time.
Shas is said to be firmly committed to allowing Netanyahu to
run one way or the other. It is working to alter the Basic
Law on the Government to allow Netanyahu to compete, an
alternative that it prefers to holding new Knesset elections
in which its strength would probably decrease. However, it
is said that Shas would vote to dissolve the Knesset if the
change in the Basic Law cannot be passed.
Shas seems willing to take a chance and lose a number of its
17 Knesset seats in order to see Barak ousted from
office.
Support for changing the basic law in order to allow
Netanyahu to run seems to exist across the political
spectrum. In addition to the members of the opposition, One
Israel MKs Weizman Shiri, Collette Avital, Salah Tarif and
Sofa Landver, offered their support to the bill. However
Meretz MKs and others said that they will oppose alterations
to the Basic Law.
Supporters of Benjamin Netanyahu in the Likud are pushing
for the bill calling for the dissolution of the Knesset and
the holding of general elections, since Netanyahu could then
participate without any difficulty.
It was also decided on Monday that the Knesset will go into
recess on December 21 and will hold no further deliberations
until after the special elections.
Background
Binyamin Netanyahu announced his candidacy late Sunday with
a verbal assault on the policies of Ehud Barak, who now
trails Netanyahu in public opinion polls by a margin greater
than the 12 percentage points by which he won in the
elections in May 1999.
However, unless the Knesset acts to change existing election
laws, Netanyahu's withdrawal from the Knesset after his May,
1999 defeat could keep him competing against Barak in
elections to be held as soon as early February.
Barak surprised everyone with a surprise announcement last
Saturday night that he would resign Sunday, paving the way
for special elections for the premiership within 60 days.
According to the current law, the resignation of the prime
minister requires new elections within 60 days for a prime
minister, but the Knesset remains in office. In the special
prime ministerial elections, only sitting members of Knesset
may compete. Barak's move was widely seen as a ploy to block
internal opposition within his party (since the time is too
short to allow effective opposition) and also to block out
Netanyahu, his most difficult opponent. If elections take
place in 60 days, the deadline for submitting candidacy will
fall on December 25, less than two weeks from now.
Netanyahu, taking the news limelight less than 24 hours
later, said that he is reentering politics to run for prime
minister. He appealed to Knesset members to put aside their
own fears about reelection and to vote to dissolve the
parliament bringing about general elections in which
Netanyahu could run without any problem. With Shas, there
are thought to be 65 votes for dissolution of the
Knesset.
Shas is clear about its preference for Netanyahu over Barak,
but fears that general Knesset elections could weaken its
current parliamentary strength. Shas last year won 17 seats
in the 120-seat house, just short of the Likud's 19
seats.
Opinion polls indicate that Shas would decline this time
round, with some of its voters returning to the Likud.
However -- and this is a significant "however" -- opinion
polls have always underestimated the strength of Shas, often
by a wide margin.
Netanyahu enjoys almost magical popularity in his party, and
is viewed as a much more attractive candidate than the
party's current leader, aging warhorse Ariel Sharon.
Likud officials hoped to bring the dissolution bill for its
final readings by Tuesday.
In 1996, Netanyahu was the first Israeli leader elected
under a new system of direct elections for the prime
minister. Until then, the leader of the party winning the
most votes in elections for the Knesset acceded to the top
job.
Following are some of the dates proposed for the timetable
of elections in Israel. The situation is very fluid and
these could easily change several times:
Sunday, December 17 - Likud to hold primaries to choose its
candidate for prime minister.
December 18 - Knesset committee debates the final form of a
bill to disband Knesset.
December 19 - Likud optimists hope to bring bill to dissolve
Knesset for its final approval.
Monday, December 25 (28 Kislev, 4th candle of Chanukah) -
Deadline for submitting candidacy for prime ministerial
election.
Wednesday, January 17 - Campaign broadcast advertising
begins, 21 days prior to election.
Tuesday, February 6 (13 Shvat) - Election day, 60 days after
Barak's resignation. If the Knesset is dissolved, elections
may also be held this day, or 30 days later, or in May.
