Seven months after his landslide election defeat, Barak has
begun to come out of hiding. He has been delivering speeches
to political forums and granting interviews--so far only to
the foreign press, but an interview with a local newspaper is
just a matter of time. Either Barak is indulging feelings of
nostalgia, or else he is laying the groundwork for a political
comeback.
The Central Kibbutz Movement is furious with Barak for taking
advantage of the spotlight they placed on him to voice his
support for Defense Minister Binyamin Ben Eliezer in the race
for leadership of the Labor Party, and claimed that he
violated the agreement they made with him not to mention the
internal Labor Party elections in his speech.
The Central Kibbutz Movement expressed its support for Avraham
Burg several weeks ago already, and its members have been
enlisted to help him. Members of the organization comprise one
of the largest voting blocks within the Labor Party. The
Central Kibbutz Movement, whose members are highly disciplined
and generally post a high turnout rate, is expected to have a
tremendous influence on the internal elections, so from Burg's
perspective it represents a critical support group.
Ben Eliezer--who is well aware of the power the Kibbutz
Movement wields and the major impact its members could have on
the election results--could not have found a better card to
play than former prime minister, Ehud Barak, who is still held
in high regard within the Kibbutz Movement. According to the
Kibbutz Movement, in order to assist Ben Eliezer, and perhaps
even more in order to harm his great political rival Avraham
Burg, Barak broke an agreement between the two sides.
Likewise, his criticism of meetings held with Yasser Arafat is
also based in part on political considerations and probably
should not be taken too seriously. Had Barak won the last
elections and were now prime minister, he would have jumped at
the first opportunity to meet with Arafat. Barak, the prime
minister who offered Arafat the most generous, far-reaching
deal ever, should be the last person to lodge criticism
against meeting with Arafat. He tried with all his might to
reach an agreement with Arafat up until his last days in
office when it was already clear that he was heading for a
sound defeat. The Intifadah was already in full swing at the
time, but Barak pressed forward. For him to condemn talks
under fire borders on the absurd.
Apparently Barak's remarks were actually made because of the
person slated to meet with Arafat: Shimon Peres. The rivalry
between Peres and Barak is well-known.
Returning from Nowhere
When David Levy resigned his post as foreign minister under
Binyamin Netanyahu, he compared the government to a plane
flying to nowhere. The Center Party is also like a party
without a destination: the party had no future and its members
had no future. Then along comes Prime Minister Ariel Sharon
and grants these Center Party members the grand prize,
bringing them back into the limelight from nowhere.
Dan Meridor and Roni Milo, formerly high-ranking ministers in
the Likud government who even announced their intentions to
run for prime minister at one point, had become minor figures
in the present Knesset. In the opposition they had little
clout and made infrequent appearances in the Knesset.
Now Sharon, who already salvaged Meridor's political career
once before at the beginning of the Netanyahu government, is
about to save his career once again. He has assigned Meridor
and Milo to ministerial posts and propelled them into a
central and influential position in the political
establishment. Meridor will be in charge of the Atomic Energy
Commission, the GSS and the Mossad, and will become a member
of the security cabinet, certainly returning him to the
limelight and bringing his name back into the headlines.
Sharon was probably inspired to make the appointment not out
of a love for Meridor, but more out of a lack of love for
Netanyahu. Sharon's big, long-range plan is to bring Meridor,
Milo and David Magen back to the Likud. All three of them are
long-standing Netanyahu arch rivals, and these appointments
would buttress Sharon's position in the showdown against the
former Prime Minister predicted to take place during the next
Likud elections for party chairman.
This move will help Sharon more immediately. With the five
Center Party MKs in the government he has an alternative to
Labor, thereby reducing Labor's clout right away by making it
obvious that the government would not fall even if Labor
leaves. If Labor goes, they will just languish in the barren
desert of opposition without new elections.
Sharon knows that after the Labor Party elections are held
next week, if Avraham Burg is chosen, there is a slight chance
that the new Labor chairman will try to withdraw his party
from the government, since Burg has no ministerial post. Both
in terms of votes within the Knesset and in terms of his
public profile, including the Center Party would allow his
government to maintain a moderate image if the Labor Party
resigns. Meridor and Milo are definitely enough to secure the
Left without Labor.
Hirsheson in the Lead
Knesset Chairman Avraham Burg may well be Labor Party Chairman
and the party's candidate for prime minister in about two
weeks, if Burg defeats Defense Minister Binyamin Ben Eliezer
in the Labor party primaries.
If he wins, Burg will have to relinquish his position as
Speaker of the Knesset. It is impossible to head a political
party and to provide an alternative to the present Likud
government while occupying a post that requires "royal"
conduct above petty politics and precludes him from engaging
in the type of political involvement demanded of a party
chairman.
The battle to replace Burg as Knesset chairman has already
commenced. Presumably the post will be given to a Likud
member, based on the Knesset tradition of nominating an MK
from the Prime Minister's party. Today, Sharon and Burg are
not from the same party, but this stems from the fact that
prime minister elections were held in the middle of the term
and a prime minister from a different party took office. No
one wanted to replace the Knesset chairman, whose work earned
him the sympathy and support of a majority of the Knesset,
from left and right, from the religious and the non-
religious.
But now, chances are that the Knesset will return to its past
traditions. Still, the Labor Party might refuse to give up the
coveted post without a fight and might seek to install one of
its own. Shochat, for instance.
In any case, three Likud MKs are vying for the job: Michael
Eitan, Yehoshua Matza and Avraham Hirsheson. Matza supporters
claim that Ariel Sharon is backing him, but Sharon, always a
very sober-minded politician, is more likely to go with the
candidate with the best chances of winning to avoid ending up
on the losing side. Of the three Avraham Hirsheson is believed
to have the best chance.
Hirsheson would be acceptable to Likud Party members and to
members of other parties from both the Right and the Left. He
is also accepted by religious and chareidi MKs. These MKs know
that with every religious issue that comes up, whether in a
plenum or in a Finance Committee meeting (where he is a
veteran) they know that they can count on Hirsheson's vote
unequivocally. "He has a real Jewish heart," religious MKs say
of him.
Hirsheson is also considered to be a reasonable, moderate and
measured MK who doesn't start fights. A thinking man. The
other two candidates, however, are known for their loud voices
and the tumult they have caused, on occasion, during Knesset
plenums.
Michael Eitan's candidacy is widely opposed among the
religious parties due to his stances and past activities in
various religious issues. Yehoshua Matza is also likely to
encounter many opponents, particularly among left-wing
parties, and it is difficult to see how a consensus could form
for his candidacy.
Hirsheson is the only one among the three who is capable of
forging a consensus for himself, and in the unity government,
a candidate who can garner broad support automatically becomes
the leading candidate. He does not threaten anyone and he is
capable of simultaneously winning the confidence of Yossi
Sarid of the Left and Michael Kleiner of the Right. This is
what has transformed him into the leading candidate.
According to Likud regulations the Knesset chairman candidate
is nominated by a secret ballot so that anything could happen,
but party members can be counted on to take into account the
preferences of other parties, and would like to select the
candidate who can win the largest number of votes in the
Knesset and the confidence of a majority of MKs.
