Dei'ah veDibur - Information & Insight

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1 Adar 5759 - Feb. 17, 1999 | Mordecai Plaut, director Published Weekly
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How Many Were Actually There?

by Mordecai Plaut

At 2:45, just before they began to daven mincha, they announced from the podium that 200,000 had already arrived for the atzeres tefilla. After they finished mincha and just before the program of Tehillim and selichos started, someone announced that the crowd numbered 300,000. At the end, Rabbi Porush said that we would be accepting ol malchus Shomayim in the presence of 60 myriads -- 600,000.

Minister of Internal Security Kahalani said that there were "more than 250,000." The Jerusalem Post also reported 250,000. CNN reported only 200,000.

Everyone agreed that it was one of the largest gatherings ever held in modern Israel. Even the lowest figure would put it firmly in that category.

Judging from the bounds of the crowd -- stretching from the intersection of Jaffa Road and Yirmiyohu streets back along Jaffa Road to Machaneh Yehuda, in addition to side areas such as the women's area near Eitz Chaim neighborhood -- and assessing the realistic possibilities, 250-300,000 seems realistic. The chareidi community of Yerushalayim is around 200,000, and it is likely that more than half attended. Estimates of the number of buses ranged from 800 to 1500. Together with private vehicles, that could easily bring the number of arriving from outside of Yerushalayim to well over 100,000.

Also demonstrating, and stealing more than their share of media attention, was a group on Sacher Park in support of the High Court of Justice and in support of the political fortunes of many of the speakers.

Almost all of the (left-leaning) news sources placed the figure for that demonstration at 50,000. However, observers at the scene, and a careful inspection of pictures of that rally (with a magnifying glass) in the Yated newsroom, resulted in an assessment that 10,000 is an overly generous estimate.

One observer once suggested that there is an understood factor of exaggeration in most crowd estimates, of at least five and as much as ten. That was apparently applied to the leftist demonstration. By that principle, we had way over a million.

Kein yirbu!


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