Though Yisrael Beiteinu has joined the coalition boosting its
numbers from 67 to 78, the coalition still has plenty of
problems on its hands.
Avigdor Lieberman had three reasons for joining the
coalition: to leave Netanyahu chairman of a shrunken
opposition, to gain experience in security affairs as
preparation for a possible bid for the prime minister's
office (which explains why he chose the Strategic Planning
portfolio) and to create a centrist image, for he knows he
stands no chance of ever getting elected prime minister as
long as he is perceived as a right-wing extremist.
On the other hand Lieberman realizes he cannot estrange
himself from his party's platform. For example Lieberman
cannot renege on his promises to try to pass the Marital
Covenant Law, which is part of the coalition agreement he
signed with Ehud Olmert.
Shas also wants to keep its seats in the coalition, but it
has its red lines too. One of them is the Marital Covenant
Law. Shas would not be able to stay put in a government that
promotes civil marriage in Israel.
Thus a confrontation between Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu is
just a question of time. And if Olmert chooses to side with
Yisrael Beiteinu and its 11 votes, he could wind up losing 12
votes of Shas.
Well before this, Olmert and the government have another
hurdle to overcome: the 2007 budget. On the surface it
appears easy to pass a budget with 78 coalition members, but
in fact a big battle is soon to break out. The coalition
members will see Olmert had to sweat to achieve peace by the
end of the year, when he will have to present a majority to
approve the budget in second and third readings.
The big headlines in the budget battle are social issues. All
of the coalition parties will try to increase the budget and
Olmert will shrilly claim NIS 4 billion was already added to
the budget for social programs.
Shas, the Pensioners, Labor and even Kadima will be slow to
concede to Olmert and Hirchson on social affairs. Shas has
already announced it will only support the budget in the
first reading and then they will demand Olmert meet the terms
of the coalition agreement, including linking Children's
Allowances to the Consumer Price Index.
Pensioners Chairman Moshe Sharoni has already issued threats
the party will stop being so acquiescent if Olmert does not
carry out the coalition agreement made with his party.
Sharoni said the media claims the Pensioners go along with
Olmert no matter what he does, but they will no longer be
Olmert's and the coalition's yes-men.
Sharoni meant what he said. In the vote over bringing
Lieberman into the coalition Sharoni and his colleague,
Yitzhak Galanti, voted no and Rafi Eitan was absent. The
Pensioners demands include the formation of a Pensioners'
Bureau and no cuts in the Old-Age Allowances. All this costs
money. If their demands are not met the Pensioners are
threatening not to support the budget and to cause problems
for the coalition.
In the Labor Party, which has already demonstrated its
potential to foment rebellion, former minister Ophir Pines-
Paz has left his seat at the government's table during
Knesset plenums and several veteran rebels are expected to
join him. With known troublemakers like Shelly Yachimovich,
Nadia Hilou, Raleb Majadele, Dani Yatom, Ami Ayalon, Avishay
Braverman, Matan Vilnai and Yoram Marciano the Labor Party
has a fairly large group of MKs capable of making real
trouble for the coalition.
Even within his own party, Kadima, several of Olmert's
colleagues feel embittered over not receiving posts during
the current term and are liable to vent their frustrations in
the form of demands for social spending.
And last but not least is Yisrael Beiteinu. Avigdor Lieberman
is not about to stand off to the side quietly as all the
other coalition parties lay forth demands for their
constituents. He too has voters with needs and these needs
cost money. A lot of money.
This might be the reason why Olmert, who just managed to
increase his coalition by 11 MKs, is still working hard to
court UTJ and its six MKs. And even if he succeeds in
bringing his coalition up to 84 he won't be able to rest on
his laurels. But he knows the bigger the coalition the less
bargaining power each of the partners has.
