Antony Kurdesman is the senior historian and chairman at the
U.S.-based Center for International Strategic Studies. Based
on a new study he conducted, Kurdesman claims that under
normal circumstances, although the IDF's qualitative
superiority would probably be able to repel a comprehensive
surprise attack by Arab nations for a short period of time,
the Arab armies' numerical advantage coupled with the Israeli
public's sensitivity to casualties would prevent Israel from
holding off a sustained attack.
The study further shows that Israel is revealing signs of
weakness due to the psychological war being waged against
Kurdesman claims that Israeli effort to develop anti-missile
defense systems over the past few years has been at the
expense of developing its naval capabilities. "Israel has one
of the world's most modern air forces, but Saudi Arabia has a
very modern air force as well," states the study.
The researchers who conducted the study on the Middle East
also point to the buildup of non-conventional armaments as the
greatest threat to regional peace. They claim that within just
five years Iran will succeed in developing a nuclear bomb.
Syria is also expected to succeed in developing biological
arms in the near future.
"The Middle East is the most armed region in the world," notes
the report in its pessimistic conclusion, and during the year
1997 alone Arab nations spent $20 billion (!) on arms.